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Sun Aug 18 8:15 pm

IRL Week 15 of 17 - Regular Season

Takuma Sato What If?

The Takuma Sato What If table presents probabilities of different IRL Driver Championship finishes depended upon how Takuma Sato completes future races. These races include either the next race or all 3 remaining races. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results.

Takuma Sato What If?

Next Race - Bommarito Auto Group 500 at Gateway Motorsports Park

  Resultant
Points
Finishing Spot
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
Win Next Race
(1st Place)
385 X <1% <1% <1% 6% 38% 34% 19% 3% <1%
Current Standings 331 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 14% 18% 24% 20% 23%
21st Place 340 X X X X <1% 8% 12% 19% 22% 39%


Remaining Races

Finish for
the 3
Remaining
Races
Resultant
Points
Finishing Spot
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+
1 493 X <1% <1% 2% 94% 4% ^ ^ ^ ^
2 454 X X X X 32% 66% 2% <1% ^ ^
3 439 X X X X 8% 80% 12% <1% <1% ^
4 430 X X X X 2% 71% 26% 1% <1% <1%
5 424 X X X X <1% 59% 36% 4% <1% <1%
6 418 X X X X <1% 42% 47% 11% <1% <1%
7 412 X X X X <1% 26% 51% 21% 2% <1%
8 406 X X X X X 14% 47% 34% 6% <1%
9 397 X X X X X 4% 29% 48% 17% 2%
10 391 X X X X X 1% 15% 47% 31% 7%
11 388 X X X X X <1% 10% 42% 37% 12%
12 385 X X X X X <1% 5% 35% 42% 18%
13 382 X X X X X <1% 3% 27% 43% 28%
14 379 X X X X X <1% 1% 19% 42% 38%
15 376 X X X X X <1% <1% 11% 37% 52%
16 373 X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 28% 65%
17 370 X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 20% 76%
18 367 X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 12% 86%
19 364 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 7% 93%
20 361 X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 97%
21 358 X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot