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Sun Sep 5 9:05 am

IRL Week 16 of 17 - Regular Season

Tony Kanaan What If?

The Tony Kanaan What If table presents probabilities of different IRL Driver Championship finishes depended upon how Tony Kanaan completes future races. These races include either the next race or all 2 remaining races. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results.

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Tony Kanaan What If?

Next Race - Indy Japan 300 at Twin Ring Motegi

	Resultant Points	Finishing Spot
	Resultant Points	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+
Win Next Race (1st Place)	445	X	X	< 1%	2%	38%	45%	14%	^	^	^
Current Standings	392	X	X	< 1%	< 1%	7%	24%	67%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Lose Next Race (24th Place)	404	X	X	X	X	< 1%	4%	89%	7%	< 1%	< 1%

Remaining Races

Finish for the 2 Remaining Races	Resultant Points	Finishing Spot
Finish for the 2 Remaining Races	Resultant Points	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+
1	498	X	X	< 1%	31%	67%	1%	^	^	^	^
3	468	X	X	X	X	26%	57%	17%	^	^	^
5	458	X	X	X	X	5%	46%	48%	< 1%	^	^
7	450	X	X	X	X	1%	26%	73%	< 1%	^	^
9	442	X	X	X	X	< 1%	8%	91%	1%	< 1%	^
11	436	X	X	X	X	X	3%	95%	2%	< 1%	^
13	428	X	X	X	X	X	< 1%	93%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
15	424	X	X	X	X	X	< 1%	88%	12%	< 1%	< 1%
17	420	X	X	X	X	X	X	83%	16%	1%	< 1%
19	418	X	X	X	X	X	X	79%	20%	1%	< 1%
21	418	X	X	X	X	X	X	78%	21%	1%	< 1%
23	416	X	X	X	X	X	X	75%	24%	2%	< 1%
24	416	X	X	X	X	X	X	75%	24%	2%	< 1%

Notes
^ means the driver will finish better than this spot
X means the driver cannot win this spot
50% - probability the driver will win this spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the driver will win this spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot