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NASCAR Regular Season - Week 25 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Jeff Gordon 3 845 177 51% 40% 9% < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 3 818 150 18% 50% 28% 3% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Brad Keselowski 3 776 108 13% 4% 43% 34% 6% < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 Joey Logano 3 761 93 10% 3% 19% 51% 16% 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 Jimmie Johnson 3 726 58 8% 3% < 1% 8% 68% 12% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 Kevin Harvick 2 721 53 < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 6% 49% 41% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 Carl Edwards 2 716 48 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 36% 58% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 Kyle Busch 1 629 -39 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 38% 41% 17% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^
9 Denny Hamlin 1 594 -74 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 12% 26% 34% 19% 7% 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^
10 AJ Allmendinger 1 586 -82 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 4% 8% 24% 34% 22% 6% 1% ^ ^ ^
11 Kurt Busch 1 582 -86 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 9% 7% 20% 31% 24% 8% 1% ^ ^ ^
12 Aric Almirola 1 559 -109 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 4% 1% 3% 11% 44% 31% 6% ^ ^ ^
13 Matt Kenseth 0 751 83 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 6% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 43% 39% 10% 1% < 1%
14 Ryan Newman 0 710 42 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 33% 36% 18% 8%
15 Clint Bowyer 0 699 31 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 11% 29% 31% 23%
16 Greg Biffle 0 694 26 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 4% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 6% 22% 33% 34%
 
17 Kyle Larson 0 668 -26 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 4% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 11% 81%
18 Kasey Kahne 0 661 -33 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 5% 92%
19 Austin Dillon 0 654 -40 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 98%
20 Paul Menard 0 649 -45 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 4% 3% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 93%
21 Jamie McMurray 0 634 -60 X X X X X < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
22 Marcos Ambrose 0 626 -68 X X X X X X < 1% 2% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 95%
23 Brian Vickers 0 621 -73 X X X X X X X 3% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 94%
24 Casey Mears 0 561 -133 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
25 Martin Truex Jr. 0 540 -154 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
26 Tony Stewart 0 537 -157 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 96%
27 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 514 -180 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% 96%
28 Danica Patrick 0 462 -232 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
29 Justin Allgaier 0 425 -269 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
30 David Gilliland 0 376 -318 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
31 Michael Annett 0 370 -324 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
32 David Ragan 0 353 -341 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
33 Cole Whitt 0 339 -355 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
34 Reed Sorenson 0 320 -374 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
35 Josh Wise 0 296 -398 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
36 Alex Bowman 0 295 -399 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
37 Ryan Truex 0 181 -513 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 Michael McDowell 0 166 -528 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
39 Travis Kvapil 0 144 -550 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 Jeff Burton 0 87 -607 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
41 Terry Labonte 0 77 -617 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 David Stremme 0 56 -638 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 Bobby Labonte 0 54 -640 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 Parker Kligerman 0 54 -640 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
45 Michael Waltrip 0 48 -646 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 Alex Kennedy 0 47 -647 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Juan Pablo Montoya 0 47 -647 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Dave Blaney 0 46 -648 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 David Reutimann 0 37 -657 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Brett Moffitt 0 34 -660 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Boris Said 0 28 -666 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Timmy Hill 0 22 -672 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Nelson Piquet Jr. 0 18 -676 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Eddie MacDonald 0 9 -685 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Tomy Drissi 0 6 -688 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Blake Koch 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Brian Scott 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 J.J. Yeley 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 Johnny Sauter 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
61 Landon Cassill 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
62 Mike Bliss 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
63 Morgan Shepherd 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
64 Regan Smith 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
65 Ryan Blaney 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
66 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
67 Trevor Bayne 0 0 -694 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot