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NASCAR Regular Season - Week 6 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Kevin Harvick 2 225 105 98% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
2 Joey Logano 1 197 77 1% 41% 23% 13% 9% 7% 5% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
3 Brad Keselowski 1 163 43 < 1% 17% 20% 18% 12% 7% 8% 8% 6% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
4 Jimmie Johnson 1 159 39 1% 19% 19% 17% 12% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
5 Martin Truex Jr. 0 192 72 < 1% 5% 7% 8% 10% 12% 8% 3% 2% 4% 7% 10% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1%
6 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 164 44 < 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 8% 6% 3% 3% 5% 8% 11% 10% 8% 9%
7 Ryan Newman 0 162 42 < 1% 2% 4% 6% 6% 8% 10% 10% 5% 3% 3% 5% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7%
8 Kasey Kahne 0 159 39 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 7% 9% 8% 4% 2% 3% 7% 11% 14% 12% 8% 5%
9 Paul Menard 0 152 32 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 6% 7% 5% 2% 2% 4% 10% 14% 16% 13% 13%
10 Aric Almirola 0 138 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 3% 8% 15% 19% 43%
11 AJ Allmendinger 0 137 17 < 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 7% 9% 7% 4% 2% 2% 3% 5% 7% 39%
12 Casey Mears 0 132 12 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 5% 6% 5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 7% 11% 51%
13 Matt Kenseth 0 127 7 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 7% 5% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 50%
14 Denny Hamlin 0 125 5 < 1% 3% 4% 6% 8% 7% 4% 4% 6% 9% 8% 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 31%
15 David Ragan 0 124 4 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% 1% 3% 8% 78%
16 Jamie McMurray 0 120 - < 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 4% 6% 8% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 40%
 
17 Carl Edwards 0 120 - < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 84%
18 Kyle Larson 0 116 -4 < 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 7% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% < 1% 54%
19 Austin Dillon 0 116 -4 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% 1% 1% 89%
20 Clint Bowyer 0 115 -5 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% < 1% 1% 76%
21 Greg Biffle 0 113 -7 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% 76%
22 Jeff Gordon 0 112 -8 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 78%
23 Danica Patrick 0 111 -9 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 91%
24 Justin Allgaier 0 102 -18 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 91%
25 David Gilliland 0 101 -19 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 91%
26 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 99 -21 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 4% 2% 1% < 1% 77%
27 Trevor Bayne 0 86 -34 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 95%
28 Kurt Busch 0 82 -38 < 1% 4% 7% 8% 8% 12% 11% 6% 2% 2% 5% 8% 11% 9% 6% 2% 1%
29 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 80 -40 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 93%
30 Cole Whitt 0 80 -40 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
31 Brett Moffitt 0 78 -42 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 5% 3% 1% < 1% 62%
32 Tony Stewart 0 62 -58 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
33 Michael Annett 0 60 -60 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
34 Alex Bowman 0 48 -72 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
35 Michael McDowell 0 44 -76 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
36 Josh Wise 0 38 -82 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
37 Brian Vickers 0 32 -88 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% 87%
38 Jeb Burton 0 28 -92 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
39 Bobby Labonte 0 20 -100 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 95%
40 Michael Waltrip 0 18 -102 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
41 Reed Sorenson 0 12 -108 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
42 Matt DiBenedetto 0 11 -109 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
43 Mike Wallace 0 8 -112 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
44 Alex Kennedy 0 6 -114 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
45 Ron Hornaday Jr. 0 2 -118 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
46 Brendan Gaughan 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Brian Scott 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Chris Buescher 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 J.J. Yeley 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Johnny Sauter 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Landon Cassill 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Matt Crafton 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Mike Bliss 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Regan Smith 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Ryan Blaney 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Ty Dillon 0 0 -120 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot