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NASCAR Regular Season - Week 25 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Jimmie Johnson 4 792 172 70% 28% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Kyle Busch 4 433 -187 16% 62% 22% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
3 Joey Logano 3 865 245 11% 3% 59% 27% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 Matt Kenseth 3 753 133 2% 8% 1% 58% 29% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 Kevin Harvick 2 908 288 1% < 1% 16% 3% 59% 20% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2 819 199 < 1% < 1% 1% 10% 2% 74% 13% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 Kurt Busch 2 713 93 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 8% 2% 67% 21% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 Brad Keselowski 1 793 173 X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 5% 60% 29% 3% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 Martin Truex Jr. 1 771 151 X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 7% 12% 68% 12% < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 Denny Hamlin 1 712 92 X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 6% 3% 1% 80% 10% 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 Carl Edwards 1 666 46 X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 1% 1% 75% 18% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
12 Jamie McMurray 0 696 76 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 2% 33% 34% 18% 7% 3% < 1%
13 Ryan Newman 0 683 63 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 16% 33% 25% 15% 6% 1%
14 Paul Menard 0 674 54 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 3% 13% 30% 31% 17% 4%
15 Jeff Gordon 0 672 52 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 4% 12% 23% 29% 20% 7%
16 Clint Bowyer 0 655 35 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 2% 1% 5% 17% 48% 24%
 
17 Aric Almirola 0 620 -35 X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 96%
18 Kasey Kahne 0 618 -37 X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 92%
19 Greg Biffle 0 572 -83 X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
20 Austin Dillon 0 564 -91 X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
21 Kyle Larson 0 551 -104 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
22 Danica Patrick 0 525 -130 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
23 Casey Mears 0 516 -139 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
24 AJ Allmendinger 0 515 -140 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
25 David Ragan 0 491 -164 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
26 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 476 -179 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
27 Tony Stewart 0 466 -189 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
28 Trevor Bayne 0 443 -212 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
29 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 434 -221 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
30 Justin Allgaier 0 409 -246 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
31 Cole Whitt 0 387 -268 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
32 David Gilliland 0 362 -293 X X X X X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
33 Alex Bowman 0 303 -352 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
34 Brett Moffitt 0 303 -352 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
35 Michael Annett 0 271 -384 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
36 Matt DiBenedetto 0 263 -392 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
37 Josh Wise 0 202 -453 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 Michael McDowell 0 161 -494 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
39 Jeb Burton 0 136 -519 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 Alex Kennedy 0 93 -562 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
41 Reed Sorenson 0 41 -614 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 Bobby Labonte 0 39 -616 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 Brian Vickers 0 32 -623 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 Michael Waltrip 0 26 -629 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
45 Mike Wallace 0 8 -647 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 Eddie MacDonald 0 7 -648 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Will Kimmel 0 6 -649 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Ron Hornaday Jr. 0 2 -653 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Boris Said 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Brendan Gaughan 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Brian Scott 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Chase Elliott 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Chris Buescher 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Derek White 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Erik Jones 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 J.J. Yeley 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Jeff Green 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 Joey Gase 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 Johnny Sauter 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
61 Justin Marks 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
62 Landon Cassill 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
63 Matt Crafton 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
64 Mike Bliss 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
65 Regan Smith 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
66 Ryan Blaney 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
67 Timmy Hill 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
68 Travis Kvapil 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
69 Ty Dillon 0 0 -655 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot