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NASCAR Challenger Round - Week 3 of 3

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 13th or
Behind 12th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
1 Brad Keselowski 1 2097 48 46% 42% 11% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Joey Logano 1 2096 47 47% 42% 11% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Kevin Harvick 0 2090 41 4% 1% 26% 36% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
4 Jimmie Johnson 0 2080 31 1% 3% 11% 25% 21% 12% 8% 5% 3% 4% 4% 2% 1%
5 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 2077 28 1% 3% 7% 18% 25% 19% 10% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
6 Kyle Busch 0 2077 28 1% 2% 4% 13% 21% 18% 11% 6% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%
7 Jeff Gordon 0 2070 21 < 1% 3% 4% 6% 19% 24% 17% 7% 4% 3% 2% 3% 6%
8 Matt Kenseth 0 2057 8 < 1% 1% 3% < 1% 2% 7% 15% 16% 10% 7% 5% 6% 27%
9 Carl Edwards 0 2057 8 < 1% 1% 3% < 1% 1% 4% 10% 14% 13% 11% 9% 9% 25%
10 AJ Allmendinger 0 2056 7 < 1% < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 10% 13% 47%
11 Kasey Kahne 0 2055 6 < 1% < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% 2% 7% 13% 14% 12% 9% 8% 32%
12 Ryan Newman 0 2055 6 < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 7% 13% 16% 14% 12% 10% 24%
 
13 Denny Hamlin 0 2049 -6 X < 1% 5% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 5% 9% 12% 12% 12% 44%
14 Greg Biffle 0 2049 -6 X < 1% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 7% 10% 12% 13% 50%
15 Kurt Busch 0 2047 -8 X X 5% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 5% 7% 9% 9% 63%
16 Aric Almirola 0 2045 -10 X X 3% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 5% 8% 7% 74%
17 Kyle Larson 0 821 -1234 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
18 Jamie McMurray 0 782 -1273 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
19 Clint Bowyer 0 781 -1274 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
20 Austin Dillon 0 759 -1296 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
21 Paul Menard 0 753 -1302 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
22 Brian Vickers 0 736 -1319 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
23 Marcos Ambrose 0 684 -1371 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
24 Martin Truex Jr. 0 642 -1413 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
25 Casey Mears 0 636 -1419 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
26 Tony Stewart 0 609 -1446 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
27 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 588 -1467 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
28 Danica Patrick 0 578 -1477 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
29 Justin Allgaier 0 500 -1555 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
30 David Gilliland 0 435 -1620 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
31 Michael Annett 0 419 -1636 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
32 David Ragan 0 396 -1659 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
33 Cole Whitt 0 387 -1668 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
34 Reed Sorenson 0 383 -1672 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
35 Josh Wise 0 341 -1714 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
36 Alex Bowman 0 335 -1720 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
37 Ryan Truex 0 193 -1862 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 Michael McDowell 0 178 -1877 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
39 Travis Kvapil 0 167 -1888 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 Jeff Burton 0 87 -1968 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
41 Terry Labonte 0 77 -1978 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 David Stremme 0 68 -1987 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 Bobby Labonte 0 54 -2001 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 Parker Kligerman 0 54 -2001 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
45 Michael Waltrip 0 48 -2007 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 Alex Kennedy 0 47 -2008 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Juan Pablo Montoya 0 47 -2008 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Dave Blaney 0 46 -2009 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Brett Moffitt 0 44 -2011 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 David Reutimann 0 37 -2018 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Timmy Hill 0 31 -2024 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Boris Said 0 28 -2027 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Nelson Piquet Jr. 0 18 -2037 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Eddie MacDonald 0 9 -2046 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Tomy Drissi 0 6 -2049 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Blake Koch 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Brian Scott 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 Clay Rogers 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 Corey LaJoie 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 J.J. Yeley 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
61 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
62 Joey Gase 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
63 Johnny Sauter 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
64 Landon Cassill 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
65 Mike Bliss 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
66 Mike Wallace 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
67 Morgan Shepherd 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
68 Regan Smith 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
69 Ryan Blaney 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
70 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
71 Trevor Bayne 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
72 Ty Dillon 0 0 -2055 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot