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NASCAR Regular Season - Week 17 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Jimmie Johnson 4 546 116 75% 23% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
2 Kevin Harvick 2 616 186 21% 51% 19% 7% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Kurt Busch 2 469 39 2% 15% 33% 22% 17% 9% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
4 Martin Truex Jr. 1 563 133 < 1% 2% 11% 14% 12% 16% 20% 16% 7% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% ^
5 Joey Logano 1 559 129 < 1% 1% 7% 12% 13% 18% 24% 16% 7% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
6 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 545 115 1% 4% 14% 18% 13% 12% 14% 14% 8% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
7 Brad Keselowski 1 505 75 < 1% 1% 4% 9% 11% 8% 11% 20% 20% 11% 4% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
8 Matt Kenseth 1 479 49 < 1% 1% 4% 6% 11% 8% 6% 13% 21% 17% 8% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
9 Denny Hamlin 1 438 8 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 11% 6% 2% 8% 18% 21% 13% 5% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
10 Carl Edwards 1 405 -25 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 4% 1% 1% 9% 23% 27% 17% 6% 1% < 1% < 1%
11 Jamie McMurray 0 497 67 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 7% 5% 2% 5% 13% 18% 18% 11% 8%
12 Kasey Kahne 0 483 53 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 9% 16% 19% 16% 17%
13 Jeff Gordon 0 462 32 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% 2% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 10% 15% 18% 33%
14 Paul Menard 0 452 22 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% 1% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 6% 13% 17% 44%
15 Ryan Newman 0 435 5 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 7% 6% 3% 3% 6% 11% 14% 38%
16 Aric Almirola 0 431 1 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 11% 76%
 
17 Clint Bowyer 0 430 -1 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 2% 6% 7% 6% 3% 1% 2% 6% 64%
18 Kyle Larson 0 390 -41 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 3% 1% 1% 2% 80%
19 Danica Patrick 0 377 -54 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% 92%
20 Greg Biffle 0 368 -63 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 1% < 1% 85%
21 Casey Mears 0 345 -86 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% < 1% 92%
22 Austin Dillon 0 341 -90 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% 95%
23 AJ Allmendinger 0 329 -102 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 4% 3% 1% < 1% 87%
24 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 307 -124 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 1% < 1% 89%
25 David Ragan 0 304 -127 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% < 1% 92%
26 Tony Stewart 0 301 -130 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% < 1% 93%
27 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 286 -145 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% < 1% 88%
28 Trevor Bayne 0 284 -147 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 95%
29 David Gilliland 0 263 -168 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 97%
30 Cole Whitt 0 261 -170 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
31 Justin Allgaier 0 260 -171 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% < 1% 92%
32 Brett Moffitt 0 215 -216 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 98%
33 Alex Bowman 0 207 -224 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
34 Michael Annett 0 187 -244 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
35 Josh Wise 0 171 -260 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
36 Matt DiBenedetto 0 163 -268 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
37 Kyle Busch 1 125 -306 < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 6% 6% 2% < 1% < 1% 1% 4% 8% 8% 6% 2% 49%
38 Michael McDowell 0 111 -320 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
39 Jeb Burton 0 97 -334 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
40 Alex Kennedy 0 67 -364 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
41 Bobby Labonte 0 38 -393 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
42 Brian Vickers 0 32 -399 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
43 Michael Waltrip 0 26 -405 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
44 Reed Sorenson 0 22 -409 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
45 Mike Wallace 0 8 -423 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
46 Ron Hornaday Jr. 0 2 -429 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
47 Boris Said 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Brendan Gaughan 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Brian Scott 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Chase Elliott 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Chris Buescher 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Erik Jones 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 J.J. Yeley 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Jeff Green 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Joey Gase 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Johnny Sauter 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 Justin Marks 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
59 Landon Cassill 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
60 Matt Crafton 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
61 Mike Bliss 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
62 Regan Smith 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
63 Ryan Blaney 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
64 Travis Kvapil 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
65 Ty Dillon 0 0 -431 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot