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NASCAR Regular Season - Week 8 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Kevin Harvick 2 306 129 86% 10% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
2 Jimmie Johnson 2 216 39 7% 36% 24% 14% 10% 6% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
3 Joey Logano 1 280 103 2% 20% 24% 20% 12% 10% 8% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
4 Brad Keselowski 1 246 69 2% 17% 19% 20% 15% 9% 8% 6% 4% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
5 Denny Hamlin 1 205 28 1% 9% 13% 15% 17% 13% 8% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
6 Martin Truex Jr. 0 266 89 < 1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 11% 12% 6% 3% 5% 9% 13% 13% 9% 5% 2% < 1%
7 Kasey Kahne 0 230 53 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 5% 8% 7% 3% 3% 6% 13% 17% 17% 10% 6% 3%
8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 213 36 < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 9% 7% 3% 4% 6% 10% 12% 11% 8% 11%
9 Ryan Newman 0 212 35 < 1% 2% 3% 6% 8% 8% 8% 11% 9% 5% 3% 3% 5% 6% 7% 6% 11%
10 Aric Almirola 0 195 18 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 8% 13% 16% 44%
11 David Ragan 0 194 17 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 6% 5% 2% 2% 4% 7% 11% 14% 39%
12 Jamie McMurray 0 193 16 < 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 5% 8% 9% 7% 4% 3% 4% 6% 8% 8% 28%
13 Matt Kenseth 0 189 12 < 1% 1% 2% 2% 5% 5% 5% 6% 9% 9% 7% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 36%
14 Jeff Gordon 0 186 9 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 6% 9% 12% 54%
15 Carl Edwards 0 182 5 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 77%
16 Casey Mears 0 178 1 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 73%
 
17 Paul Menard 0 177 -1 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 65%
18 Danica Patrick 0 176 -2 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 78%
19 Clint Bowyer 0 168 -10 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% < 1% 1% 79%
20 Greg Biffle 0 165 -13 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 88%
21 AJ Allmendinger 0 161 -17 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 7% 6% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% 62%
22 Kurt Busch 0 144 -34 1% 4% 6% 9% 10% 9% 12% 11% 7% 3% 2% 3% 5% 7% 6% 3% 3%
23 Austin Dillon 0 143 -35 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 90%
24 Trevor Bayne 0 138 -40 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 93%
25 David Gilliland 0 136 -42 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 91%
26 Kyle Larson 0 135 -43 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 6% 8% 7% 5% 2% 1% < 1% 58%
27 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 132 -46 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 4% 2% 1% < 1% 76%
28 Cole Whitt 0 111 -67 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 96%
29 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 110 -68 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 94%
30 Brett Moffitt 0 109 -69 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 4% 2% 1% < 1% 78%
31 Justin Allgaier 0 109 -69 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% 90%
32 Tony Stewart 0 107 -71 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 95%
33 Michael Annett 0 69 -109 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
34 Alex Bowman 0 66 -112 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
35 Josh Wise 0 58 -120 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
36 Michael McDowell 0 57 -121 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
37 Jeb Burton 0 43 -135 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
38 Matt DiBenedetto 0 34 -144 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
39 Brian Vickers 0 32 -146 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% < 1% 90%
40 Alex Kennedy 0 24 -154 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
41 Bobby Labonte 0 20 -158 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 97%
42 Michael Waltrip 0 18 -160 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
43 Reed Sorenson 0 12 -166 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
44 Mike Wallace 0 8 -170 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
45 Ron Hornaday Jr. 0 2 -176 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
46 Brendan Gaughan 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Brian Scott 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Chase Elliott 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Chris Buescher 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 J.J. Yeley 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Johnny Sauter 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Landon Cassill 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Matt Crafton 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Mike Bliss 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Regan Smith 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Ryan Blaney 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
58 Ty Dillon 0 0 -178 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot