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NASCAR Regular Season - Week 9 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.


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NASCAR Chase Standings

Place Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Kevin Harvick 2 186 -37 25% 19% 16% 11% 4% 6% 7% 5% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 5%
2 Carl Edwards 1 278 55 7% 10% 12% 15% 11% 6% 9% 13% 10% 5% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
3 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 271 48 29% 19% 13% 11% 9% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
4 Kyle Busch 1 269 46 9% 12% 12% 14% 13% 7% 5% 8% 9% 6% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
5 Brad Keselowski 1 246 23 11% 12% 11% 9% 12% 12% 7% 3% 4% 5% 6% 5% 3% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
6 Joey Logano 1 245 22 9% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 6% 5% 6% 7% 6% 3% 2% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
7 Kurt Busch 1 164 -59 3% 5% 7% 5% 5% 8% 11% 7% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 6% 2% 21%
8 Jeff Gordon 0 297 74 1% 2% 4% 4% 3% 5% 10% 11% 6% 2% 1% 2% 6% 10% 12% 13% 7%
9 Matt Kenseth 0 296 73 < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 7% 4% 1% 1% 3% 8% 15% 18% 19% 10%
10 Jimmie Johnson 0 270 47 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 6% 10% 9% 5% 2% 1% 2% 6% 10% 12% 19%
11 Ryan Newman 0 236 13 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 6% 7% 5% 3% 1% 2% 5% 9% 54%
12 Austin Dillon 0 235 12 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 6% 12% 64%
13 Greg Biffle 0 227 4 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 7% 7% 6% 4% 2% 2% 3% 55%
14 Tony Stewart 0 224 1 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 7% 7% 6% 4% 2% 2% 3% 52%
15 Brian Vickers 0 224 1 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 7% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 3% 55%
16 Kyle Larson 0 223 - 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 6% 3% 3% 4% 7% 9% 7% 4% 2% 2% 2% 39%
 
17 Denny Hamlin 0 223 - 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 8% 9% 5% 2% 1% 3% 7% 10% 34%
18 Clint Bowyer 0 219 -4 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 83%
19 Marcos Ambrose 0 216 -7 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 5% 7% 8% 6% 3% 1% 1% 55%
20 Paul Menard 0 206 -17 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 4% 7% 7% 7% 4% 2% 1% 55%
21 AJ Allmendinger 0 202 -21 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% < 1% 80%
22 Jamie McMurray 0 195 -28 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 83%
23 Casey Mears 0 188 -35 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% < 1% 88%
24 Kasey Kahne 0 186 -37 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 5% 4% 2% 1% 74%
25 Aric Almirola 0 184 -39 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 4% 6% 8% 7% 4% 1% 55%
26 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 178 -45 < 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 3% 6% 8% 8% 6% 2% 53%
27 Justin Allgaier 0 150 -73 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 97%
28 Martin Truex Jr. 0 148 -75 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 95%
29 Danica Patrick 0 143 -80 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 96%
30 David Gilliland 0 123 -100 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
31 Reed Sorenson 0 118 -105 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
32 David Ragan 0 107 -116 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
33 Cole Whitt 0 105 -118 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
34 Michael Annett 0 105 -118 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
35 Alex Bowman 0 100 -123 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
36 Josh Wise 0 90 -133 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
37 Travis Kvapil 0 63 -160 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
38 Parker Kligerman 0 54 -169 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
39 Ryan Truex 0 51 -172 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
40 Michael McDowell 0 40 -183 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
41 Bobby Labonte 0 29 -194 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 87%
42 Jeff Burton 0 27 -196 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 89%
43 Terry Labonte 0 24 -199 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 1% < 1% 96%
44 David Reutimann 0 22 -201 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
45 David Stremme 0 13 -210 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
46 Timmy Hill 0 7 -216 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
47 Dave Blaney 0 4 -219 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
48 Michael Waltrip 0 4 -219 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
49 Blake Koch 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Brian Scott 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Joe Nemechek 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Landon Cassill 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Morgan Shepherd 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Sam Hornish Jr. 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Trevor Bayne 0 0 -223 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot