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Sun Jul 24 9:30 pm

NASCAR Regular Season - Week 21 of 26

NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Chase Standings
Place  Driver Wins W Points Pts Points
Ahead 17th or
Behind 16th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase NC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17+
1 Brad Keselowski 4 647 185 62% 37% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Kyle Busch 4 601 139 37% 59% 5% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Carl Edwards 2 593 131 1% 2% 29% 27% 26% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 Matt Kenseth 2 560 98 <1% 1% 17% 16% 23% 26% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 Jimmie Johnson 2 552 90 <1% 1% 19% 15% 19% 26% 16% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 Kevin Harvick 1 671 209 <1% <1% 9% 12% 5% 9% 28% 26% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
7 Kurt Busch 1 627 165 <1% <1% 7% 9% 6% 2% 13% 30% 24% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
8 Joey Logano 1 606 144 <1% <1% 6% 10% 9% 3% 3% 17% 29% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
9 Martin Truex Jr. 1 588 126 <1% <1% 3% 5% 6% 3% 1% 8% 32% 32% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
10 Denny Hamlin 1 542 80 <1% <1% 3% 3% 6% 10% 7% 2% 2% 30% 28% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 Tony Stewart 1 317 -145 <1% <1% 2% 2% <1% 5% 11% 7% 1% <1% 8% 23% 24% 13% 3% <1% <1%
12 Austin Dillon 0 530 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 5% 7% 17% 25% 22% 12% 7%
13 Chase Elliott 0 525 63 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 7% 8% 15% 22% 20% 13% 9%
14 Ryan Newman 0 517 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 3% 3% 9% 21% 26% 19% 17%
15 Jamie McMurray 0 496 34 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 4% 2% 5% 16% 25% 44%
16 Kyle Larson 0 472 10 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 8% 4% 2% 5% 11% 62%
 
17 Kasey Kahne 0 462 -10 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 6% 3% 1% 2% 5% 79%
18 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 461 -11 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 8% 10% 5% 2% 3% 8% 61%
19 Trevor Bayne 0 459 -13 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 3% 86%
20 Ryan Blaney 0 450 -22 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 5% 3% 1% <1% 1% 86%
21 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 449 -23 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 2% 2% <1% <1% 2% 92%
22 AJ Allmendinger 0 431 -41 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% 92%
23 Paul Menard 0 407 -65 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 97%
24 Greg Biffle 0 397 -75 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 3% 1% <1% <1% 90%
25 Danica Patrick 0 373 -99 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 97%
26 Aric Almirola 0 363 -109 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 97%
27 Clint Bowyer 0 359 -113 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 2% 1% <1% <1% 94%
28 Casey Mears 0 310 -162 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 98%
29 Landon Cassill 0 305 -167 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 98%
30 David Ragan 0 278 -194 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 98%
31 Chris Buescher 0 237 -235 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
32 Brian Scott 0 234 -238 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
33 Regan Smith 0 234 -238 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
34 Michael McDowell 0 224 -248 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
35 Cole Whitt 0 202 -270 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
36 Matt DiBenedetto 0 190 -282 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
37 Michael Annett 0 186 -286 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
38 Josh Wise 0 93 -379 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
39 Reed Sorenson 0 93 -379 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
40 Brian Vickers 0 86 -386 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
41 Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 61 -411 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
42 Bobby Labonte 0 51 -421 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
43 David Gilliland 0 46 -426 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
44 Michael Waltrip 0 42 -430 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
45 Jeff Gordon 0 28 -444 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 Patrick Carpentier 0 11 -461 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Eddie MacDonald 0 5 -467 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Robert Richardson Jr. 0 3 -469 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Alex Bowman 0 0 -472 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Dylan Lupton 0 0 -472 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Jeb Burton 0 0 -472 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Joey Gase 0 0 -472 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Ryan Ellis 0 0 -472 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Ty Dillon 0 0 -472 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot