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Sun Sep 25 7:45 pm

NASCAR Challenger Round - Week 3 of 3

2016 NASCAR Chase Standings

Is your favorite driver going to participate in the next round of the NASCAR Chase? The NASCAR Chase Standings table presents the probability that a driver wins different qualifing Chase spots. All future race outcomes are based upon probabilities derived from past race results. Click a driver name to proceed to the driver's status page.

NASCAR Chase Standings
Place  Driver Wins Points Points
Ahead 13th or
Behind 12th Place
Qualifing Chase Spot No Chase NC
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
1 Martin Truex Jr. 1 2086 34 52% 37% 11% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 Kevin Harvick 1 2071 19 15% 42% 43% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
3 Brad Keselowski 0 2087 35 7% <1% 21% 42% 12% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1%
4 Kyle Busch 0 2085 33 9% <1% 11% 31% 17% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 2% <1%
5 Matt Kenseth 0 2078 26 4% 1% 2% 12% 21% 13% 9% 9% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4%
6 Joey Logano 0 2073 21 3% 3% 1% 6% 17% 17% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 7%
7 Denny Hamlin 0 2071 19 3% 3% <1% 4% 11% 17% 13% 10% 9% 8% 6% 6% 9%
8 Jimmie Johnson 0 2070 18 3% 3% <1% 2% 7% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 8% 8% 11%
9 Chase Elliott 0 2068 16 2% 3% <1% 1% 4% 9% 13% 15% 13% 10% 8% 7% 15%
10 Carl Edwards 0 2068 16 2% 2% <1% 1% 6% 14% 17% 15% 11% 8% 7% 6% 12%
11 Kurt Busch 0 2067 15 1% 2% <1% <1% 3% 8% 14% 17% 16% 12% 8% 7% 11%
12 Kyle Larson 0 2057 5 <1% 2% 2% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 9% 14% 15% 14% 38%
 
13 Austin Dillon 0 2052 -5 <1% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 15% 18% 53%
14 Jamie McMurray 0 2052 -5 <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 6% 11% 16% 62%
15 Tony Stewart 0 2046 -11 <1% 1% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 7% 80%
16 Chris Buescher 0 2027 -30 X <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
17 Ryan Newman 0 701 -1356 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
18 Kasey Kahne 0 699 -1358 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
19 Ryan Blaney 0 642 -1415 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
20 AJ Allmendinger 0 637 -1420 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
21 Trevor Bayne 0 608 -1449 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0 607 -1450 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
23 Danica Patrick 0 534 -1523 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
24 Paul Menard 0 526 -1531 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
25 Greg Biffle 0 518 -1539 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
26 Aric Almirola 0 488 -1569 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
27 Clint Bowyer 0 484 -1573 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
28 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0 461 -1596 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
29 Casey Mears 0 451 -1606 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
30 Landon Cassill 0 397 -1660 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
31 David Ragan 0 369 -1688 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
32 Michael McDowell 0 360 -1697 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
33 Regan Smith 0 350 -1707 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
34 Brian Scott 0 332 -1725 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
35 Matt DiBenedetto 0 286 -1771 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
36 Cole Whitt 0 254 -1803 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
37 Michael Annett 0 242 -1815 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
38 Jeff Gordon 0 151 -1906 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
39 Josh Wise 0 151 -1906 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
40 Reed Sorenson 0 145 -1912 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
41 Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 99 -1958 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
42 Brian Vickers 0 86 -1971 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
43 Bobby Labonte 0 51 -2006 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
44 David Gilliland 0 46 -2011 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
45 Michael Waltrip 0 42 -2015 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
46 Boris Said 0 17 -2040 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
47 Patrick Carpentier 0 11 -2046 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
48 Alex Kennedy 0 5 -2052 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
49 Eddie MacDonald 0 5 -2052 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
50 Robert Richardson Jr. 0 3 -2054 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
51 Alex Bowman 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
52 Dylan Lupton 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
53 Jeb Burton 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
54 Joey Gase 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
55 Justin Allgaier 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
56 Ryan Ellis 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
57 Ty Dillon 0 0 -2057 X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the driver will finish better than this qualifing Chase spot
  • X means the driver cannot win this qualifing Chase spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - green number indicates the driver controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the driver will win this qualifing Chase spot - red number indicates the driver does not control its destiny for this spot