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BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities

Will your team play in one of the five BCS Bowl Games? The BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team plays in either the Rose, Orange, Surgar, Feista, or national championship bowl game depended upon how the team plays its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Note the separator between ranked teams 13 and 14. Teams above this line should receive a bowl invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line should receive a bowl invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference championship.

New - So how well did we do in predicting who would play in one of the BCS Bowls? Our computer model correctly identified 8 of the 10 teams. Our computer model picked Arizona St. and Missouri as participates instead of Alabama and Oklahoma. These two picks were at large selections. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year.


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BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  BCS Bowl
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current Lose Out
1 Auburn SEC 105 12 1 - - 100% -
2 Stanford PAC 12 102 11 2 - - 100% -
3 Florida St. ACC 99 13 0 - - 100% -
4 Arizona St. PAC 12 97 10 3 - - 100% -
5 Missouri SEC 95 11 2 - - > 99% -
6 Alabama SEC 94 11 1 - - < 1% -
7 Ohio St. Big 10 93 12 1 - - > 99% -
8 South Carolina SEC 93 10 2 - - < 1% -
9 Oregon PAC 12 91 10 2 - - X -
10 Michigan St. Big 10 90 12 1 - - 100% -
11 Baylor Big 12 89 11 1 - - 100% -
12 UCLA PAC 12 88 9 3 - - X -
13 Clemson ACC 86 10 2 - - > 99% -
 
14 Oklahoma Big 12 85 10 2 - - < 1% -
15 Oklahoma St. Big 12 84 10 2 - - X -
16 Georgia SEC 83 8 4 - - X -
17 USC PAC 12 81 9 4 - - X -
18 LSU SEC 80 9 3 - - X -
19 Washington PAC 12 79 8 4 - - X -
20 UCF American Athletic 78 11 1 - - 100% -
21 Notre Dame Independent 78 8 4 - - X -
22 Duke ACC 78 10 3 - - X -
23 Wisconsin Big 10 77 9 3 - - X -
24 Miami ACC 77 9 3 - - X -
25 Texas A&M SEC 75 8 4 - - X -
26 Virginia Tech ACC 75 8 4 - - X -
27 Northern Illinois MAC 74 12 1 - - X -
28 Fresno State Mountain West 74 11 1 - - X -
29 Louisville American Athletic 71 11 1 - - X -
30 BYU Independent 71 8 4 - - X -
31 Arizona PAC 12 71 7 5 - - X -
32 Ole Miss SEC 70 7 5 - - X -
33 Iowa Big 10 70 8 4 - - X -
34 Minnesota Big 10 70 8 4 - - X -
35 Texas Big 12 70 8 4 - - X -
36 Vanderbilt SEC 67 8 4 - - X -
37 Georgia Tech ACC 67 7 5 - - X -
38 Washington St. PAC 12 67 6 6 - - X -
39 Michigan Big 10 67 7 5 - - X -
40 Mississippi St. SEC 64 6 6 - - X -
41 Nebraska Big 10 64 8 4 - - X -
42 Ball State MAC 62 10 2 - - X -
43 Penn St. Big 10 62 7 5 - - X -
44 Rice Conference USA 61 10 3 - - X -
45 Utah PAC 12 61 5 7 - - X -
46 Pittsburgh ACC 61 6 6 - - X -
47 Bowling Green MAC 61 10 3 - - X -
48 Oregon St. PAC 12 60 6 6 - - X -
49 Boston College ACC 60 7 5 - - X -
50 East Carolina Conference USA 59 9 3 - - X -
51 North Carolina ACC 59 6 6 - - X -
52 Houston American Athletic 59 8 4 - - X -
53 Tennessee SEC 58 5 7 - - X -
54 Navy Independent 58 8 4 - - X -
55 Texas Tech Big 12 57 7 5 - - X -
56 Kansas St. Big 12 55 7 5 - - X -
57 Syracuse ACC 55 6 6 - - X -
58 Maryland ACC 55 7 5 - - X -
59 Toledo MAC 54 7 5 - - X -
60 Boise State Mountain West 54 8 4 - - X -
61 Utah St. Mountain West 53 8 5 - - X -
62 Indiana Big 10 52 5 7 - - X -
63 North Texas Conference USA 52 8 4 - - X -
64 W. Kentucky Sunbelt 52 8 4 - - X -
65 Cincinnati American Athletic 51 9 3 - - X -
66 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 51 8 4 - - X -
67 Buffalo MAC 50 8 4 - - X -
68 Marshall Conference USA 50 9 4 - - X -
69 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 50 7 5 - - X -
70 Florida SEC 48 4 8 - - X -
71 UTSA Conference USA 48 7 5 - - X -
72 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 47 8 4 - - X -
73 Old Dominion Independent 47 8 4 - - X -
74 San Jose State Mountain West 47 6 6 - - X -
75 Northwestern Big 10 47 5 7 - - X -
76 UNLV Mountain West 47 7 5 - - X -
77 San Diego State Mountain West 47 7 5 - - X -
78 Tulane Conference USA 46 7 5 - - X -
79 LA Monroe Sunbelt 45 6 6 - - X -
80 Colorado PAC 12 44 4 8 - - X -
81 Troy Sunbelt 42 6 6 - - X -
82 Ohio MAC 41 7 5 - - X -
83 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 40 6 6 - - X -
84 Wake Forest ACC 40 4 8 - - X -
85 South Alabama Sunbelt 39 6 6 - - X -
86 Rutgers American Athletic 38 6 6 - - X -
87 TCU Big 12 37 4 8 - - X -
88 Illinois Big 10 35 4 8 - - X -
89 Akron MAC 35 5 7 - - X -
90 Colorado St. Mountain West 35 7 6 - - X -
91 Arkansas SEC 35 3 9 - - X -
92 Central Michigan MAC 34 6 6 - - X -
93 West Virginia Big 12 33 4 8 - - X -
94 Nevada Mountain West 32 4 8 - - X -
95 Virginia ACC 32 2 10 - - X -
96 Texas St. Sunbelt 31 6 6 - - X -
97 SMU American Athletic 31 5 7 - - X -
98 Iowa St. Big 12 29 3 9 - - X -
99 N.C. State ACC 28 3 9 - - X -
100 California PAC 12 27 1 11 - - X -
101 Kent State MAC 27 4 8 - - X -
102 Kentucky SEC 27 2 10 - - X -
103 Kansas Big 12 26 3 9 - - X -
104 Wyoming Mountain West 26 5 7 - - X -
105 Purdue Big 10 21 1 11 - - X -
106 Tulsa Conference USA 20 3 9 - - X -
107 Memphis American Athletic 18 3 9 - - X -
108 Connecticut American Athletic 16 3 9 - - X -
109 South Florida American Athletic 15 2 10 - - X -
110 New Mexico Mountain West 13 3 9 - - X -
111 Army Independent 12 3 9 - - X -
112 New Mexico St. Independent 10 2 10 - - X -
113 Eastern Michigan MAC 10 2 10 - - X -
114 Idaho Independent 10 1 11 - - X -
115 UAB Conference USA 10 2 10 - - X -
116 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 9 4 8 - - X -
117 Temple American Athletic 7 2 10 - - X -
118 Hawaii Mountain West 6 1 11 - - X -
119 Air Force Mountain West 5 2 10 - - X -
120 Western Michigan MAC 4 1 11 - - X -
121 UTEP Conference USA 2 2 10 - - X -
122 Massachusetts MAC 1 1 11 - - X -
123 Southern Miss Conference USA -3 1 11 - - X -
124 Florida Intl. Conference USA -4 1 11 - - X -
125 Miami OH MAC -9 0 12 - - X -
126 Georgia St. Sunbelt -9 0 12 - - X -
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will play in the championship game - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will play in the championship game - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot