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Will your team play in one of the five BCS Bowl Games? The BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team plays in either the Rose, Orange, Surgar, Feista, or national championship bowl game depended upon how the team plays its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, current winning probabilites, and losing all remaining games. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Note the separator between ranked teams 8 and 9. Teams above this line should receive a bowl invitaiton based upon thier rank. Teams below this line should receive a bowl invitation ONLY if they obtain an automatic bid by winning their conference championship.
New - So how well did we do in predicting who would play in one of the BCS Bowls? Our computer model correctly identified all but one the 10 teams. Our computer model picked Olklahoma as an participate instead of Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois was ranked #22 in our polls and thus was not eligble for an at large bid much less the automatic bid that it actually received. We will be working to make the list more accurate next year.
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BCS Bowl Participation Probabilities
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