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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Angels American 96 60   22% 36% 62% 100% 100%
Orioles American 93 62   17% 30% 59% 100% 100%
Nationals National 91 64   16% 33% 60% 100% 100%
Dodgers National 89 67   11% 25% 51% 100% 100%
Cardinals National 87 69   10% 23% 47% 97% 100%
Tigers American 86 69   9% 17% 39% 94% 99%
Pirates National 84 71   4% 10% 22% 53% 99%
Giants National 84 71   4% 9% 20% 50% 99%
Athletics American 85 70   4% 8% 19% 48% 92%
Royals American 84 70   4% 7% 17% 44% 79%
Mariners American 83 72   1% 2% 4% 10% 23%
Indians American 81 74   <1% <1% 1% 3% 7%
Brewers National 80 76   <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Yankees American 80 75   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Blue Jays American 78 77   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Braves National 76 79   X X X X X
Mets National 76 80   X X X X X
Rays American 75 81   X X X X X
Marlins National 74 81   X X X X X
Padres National 74 81   X X X X X
Reds National 72 84   X X X X X
Phillies National 71 85   X X X X X
White Sox American 71 84   X X X X X
Astros American 69 87   X X X X X
Cubs National 69 87   X X X X X
Red Sox American 68 88   X X X X X
Twins American 66 89   X X X X X
Rockies National 65 91   X X X X X
Diamondbacks National 62 94   X X X X X
Rangers American 62 93   X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot