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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Mets National 13 3   11% 19% 33% 58% 64%
Royals American 12 4   9% 16% 28% 48% 56%
Tigers American 11 5   8% 13% 23% 42% 51%
Cardinals National 10 4   7% 13% 24% 46% 53%
Yankees American 9 7   5% 9% 18% 33% 41%
Padres National 10 7   5% 9% 17% 33% 42%
Dodgers National 9 6   5% 9% 17% 33% 41%
Red Sox American 9 7   4% 8% 16% 31% 39%
Blue Jays American 9 7   4% 8% 16% 30% 38%
Braves National 8 7   4% 8% 15% 31% 38%
Astros American 8 7   4% 7% 16% 32% 37%
Rockies National 9 7   4% 7% 15% 30% 37%
Cubs National 8 7   3% 7% 15% 31% 39%
Athletics American 8 9   3% 6% 13% 28% 33%
Diamondbacks National 8 7   3% 6% 13% 26% 34%
Reds National 8 8   3% 6% 13% 26% 34%
Rays American 8 8   3% 6% 12% 24% 31%
Angels American 7 9   2% 5% 11% 24% 30%
Pirates National 8 8   2% 5% 11% 23% 30%
Nationals National 7 9   2% 4% 9% 21% 27%
Mariners American 6 9   2% 4% 9% 21% 26%
Orioles American 7 9   2% 4% 9% 20% 27%
Rangers American 6 9   2% 4% 9% 20% 25%
Twins American 6 9   2% 4% 8% 18% 26%
White Sox American 6 9   2% 4% 7% 16% 23%
Giants National 7 10   1% 3% 7% 17% 24%
Indians American 5 9   1% 3% 5% 13% 19%
Marlins National 5 11   1% 2% 5% 11% 16%
Phillies National 5 11   1% 2% 4% 10% 14%
Brewers National 3 13   <1% 1% 1% 4% 6%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot