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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Cardinals National 31 16   13% 24% 44% 79% 87%
Astros American 30 18   10% 19% 37% 68% 75%
Royals American 28 18   9% 16% 27% 52% 68%
Twins American 28 18   9% 15% 27% 51% 66%
Nationals National 28 19   7% 15% 31% 61% 69%
Dodgers National 28 18   7% 13% 26% 52% 63%
Giants National 29 20   7% 13% 26% 50% 62%
Tigers American 28 21   6% 11% 21% 41% 56%
Mets National 27 21   5% 10% 21% 44% 54%
Yankees American 25 23   4% 9% 21% 44% 48%
Cubs National 25 21   3% 7% 14% 30% 43%
Pirates National 25 22   3% 6% 12% 26% 37%
Rays American 24 24   2% 5% 11% 24% 28%
Angels American 24 24   2% 5% 10% 20% 27%
Mariners American 23 24   2% 4% 9% 19% 25%
Rangers American 23 25   2% 4% 8% 17% 22%
Orioles American 22 24   1% 3% 8% 18% 21%
Padres National 23 26   1% 3% 7% 17% 24%
Braves National 23 24   1% 3% 7% 17% 23%
Red Sox American 22 26   1% 3% 7% 16% 19%
Blue Jays American 22 27   1% 2% 5% 13% 15%
Diamondbacks National 21 25   1% 2% 5% 11% 17%
Indians American 22 25   1% 2% 5% 10% 17%
White Sox American 21 25   1% 1% 3% 7% 12%
Rockies National 19 26   <1% 1% 2% 5% 8%
Phillies National 19 30   <1% 1% 1% 3% 5%
Reds National 19 27   <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
Marlins National 18 30   <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
Athletics American 18 32   <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Brewers National 16 32   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot