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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Athletics American 10 4   8% 15% 25% 45% 52%
Brewers National 10 4   8% 14% 25% 45% 53%
Braves National 9 4   7% 13% 24% 43% 51%
Dodgers National 9 5   6% 11% 21% 40% 46%
Giants National 9 5   5% 10% 19% 38% 45%
Tigers American 6 4   5% 10% 19% 35% 42%
Cardinals National 9 5   5% 9% 18% 35% 43%
Blue Jays American 8 6   4% 9% 18% 34% 41%
Mariners American 7 6   4% 9% 16% 31% 39%
Nationals National 8 6   4% 8% 17% 32% 40%
Pirates National 8 6   4% 8% 15% 31% 39%
White Sox American 8 6   4% 8% 15% 30% 38%
Yankees American 7 6   3% 7% 14% 29% 35%
Rays American 7 7   3% 6% 13% 27% 34%
Indians American 6 7   3% 6% 12% 25% 31%
Rangers American 7 7   3% 6% 12% 24% 31%
Twins American 6 7   3% 6% 12% 24% 31%
Orioles American 6 7   2% 5% 11% 25% 31%
Rockies National 7 8   2% 5% 11% 24% 30%
Mets National 7 7   2% 5% 11% 23% 30%
Phillies National 6 7   2% 5% 10% 22% 29%
Padres National 6 8   2% 4% 10% 21% 27%
Royals American 5 7   2% 4% 10% 20% 27%
Angels American 6 8   2% 4% 9% 20% 26%
Red Sox American 5 9   1% 3% 8% 17% 22%
Marlins National 6 9   1% 3% 7% 16% 22%
Astros American 5 9   1% 3% 7% 15% 20%
Cubs National 4 8   1% 2% 6% 14% 20%
Reds National 4 10   1% 2% 4% 11% 15%
Diamondbacks National 4 13   <1% 1% 3% 7% 11%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot