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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Angels American 80 53   16% 26% 46% 85% >99%
Orioles American 76 56   15% 25% 52% 97% 98%
Dodgers National 76 58   11% 26% 51% 94% 99%
Nationals National 75 57   11% 26% 50% 94% 97%
Athletics American 78 55   11% 20% 35% 70% 99%
Royals American 74 59   8% 15% 34% 72% 82%
Brewers National 73 60   7% 16% 33% 68% 84%
Cardinals National 71 61   6% 14% 29% 60% 78%
Tigers American 72 60   4% 8% 19% 44% 60%
Giants National 71 62   3% 8% 16% 36% 63%
Braves National 70 64   2% 6% 12% 26% 43%
Pirates National 69 64   2% 4% 8% 19% 32%
Mariners American 72 60   2% 4% 8% 18% 39%
Yankees American 69 63   1% 1% 3% 6% 11%
Indians American 68 64   1% 1% 3% 6% 9%
Marlins National 65 67   <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Blue Jays American 67 66   <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Reds National 65 69   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Padres National 62 70   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Rays American 65 69   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Mets National 62 72   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Phillies National 61 72   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
White Sox American 60 73   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cubs National 59 74   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Twins American 59 74   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Red Sox American 58 75   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Astros American 57 78   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Diamondbacks National 55 78   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rockies National 53 80   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rangers American 52 81   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot