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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Athletics American 61 37   20% 32% 51% 88% >99%
Angels American 59 39   11% 17% 31% 64% 96%
Tigers American 55 41   10% 18% 42% 82% 86%
Nationals National 54 43   8% 18% 35% 69% 78%
Orioles American 54 44   7% 13% 30% 62% 67%
Giants National 55 44   6% 15% 31% 63% 75%
Dodgers National 56 45   6% 15% 31% 61% 74%
Cardinals National 54 45   6% 15% 29% 57% 70%
Brewers National 55 45   6% 13% 25% 50% 64%
Braves National 54 45   5% 13% 25% 51% 63%
Pirates National 52 47   3% 6% 12% 25% 37%
Yankees American 50 48   3% 5% 12% 26% 31%
Reds National 51 48   2% 5% 10% 20% 30%
Blue Jays American 51 49   2% 4% 10% 22% 28%
Mariners American 53 46   2% 4% 8% 20% 42%
Indians American 50 49   2% 4% 8% 18% 26%
Royals American 48 50   1% 2% 4% 8% 12%
White Sox American 48 52   <1% 1% 1% 3% 5%
Red Sox American 47 52   <1% <1% 1% 3% 4%
Mets National 46 53   <1% <1% 1% 3% 3%
Rays American 47 53   <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
Marlins National 46 52   <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
Twins American 45 53   <1% <1% 1% 1% 2%
Padres National 43 55   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Diamondbacks National 43 57   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Phillies National 43 56   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Astros American 41 58   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cubs National 40 57   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rangers American 40 59   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rockies National 40 59   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot