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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Cardinals National 82 45   22% 37% 55% 93% >99%
Royals American 78 49   21% 39% 64% >99% >99%
Pirates National 77 49   10% 18% 28% 63% >99%
Astros American 71 57   8% 18% 41% 86% 93%
Blue Jays American 71 56   8% 18% 40% 81% 96%
Mets National 71 56   8% 17% 47% 94% 94%
Yankees American 69 57   6% 13% 29% 64% 89%
Dodgers National 70 56   5% 12% 33% 67% 69%
Cubs National 73 53   4% 9% 16% 41% 93%
Giants National 68 59   2% 6% 16% 32% 35%
Rangers American 65 61   2% 5% 11% 29% 46%
Angels American 65 62   1% 3% 6% 17% 28%
Twins American 65 62   1% 2% 5% 13% 26%
Nationals National 64 62   <1% 1% 3% 7% 7%
Rays American 63 64   <1% 1% 2% 5% 10%
Orioles American 63 64   <1% 1% 1% 3% 7%
Padres National 62 65   <1% <1% 1% 2% 2%
Indians American 60 66   <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
White Sox American 60 66   <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Diamondbacks National 62 65   <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
Tigers American 60 67   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Mariners American 59 69   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Red Sox American 58 69   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Athletics American 55 73   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Braves National 54 73   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Brewers National 53 74   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Reds National 52 74   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Marlins National 51 77   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rockies National 51 74   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Phillies National 50 78   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot