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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Cardinals National 65 37   21% 36% 57% 94% >99%
Royals American 61 40   19% 35% 59% 97% 99%
Yankees American 57 44   10% 20% 43% 86% 90%
Astros American 58 45   8% 17% 38% 76% 87%
Dodgers National 57 45   7% 15% 33% 63% 73%
Pirates National 59 42   7% 13% 24% 56% 90%
Nationals National 54 46   6% 13% 33% 71% 74%
Angels American 55 46   5% 11% 22% 49% 67%
Giants National 56 45   4% 10% 24% 47% 58%
Mets National 52 50   2% 5% 14% 33% 38%
Twins American 53 48   2% 5% 10% 23% 43%
Cubs National 54 47   2% 5% 9% 23% 47%
Blue Jays American 52 51   1% 3% 7% 17% 25%
Orioles American 51 50   1% 3% 6% 14% 22%
Rays American 51 52   1% 2% 4% 10% 17%
Rangers American 49 52   1% 2% 4% 10% 15%
White Sox American 49 51   1% 2% 3% 8% 16%
Padres National 49 53   1% 1% 3% 7% 10%
Tigers American 50 52   <1% 1% 2% 6% 12%
Diamondbacks National 49 51   <1% 1% 2% 5% 7%
Indians American 47 54   <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
Braves National 46 56   <1% <1% 1% 1% 2%
Mariners American 46 57   <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
Reds National 46 54   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Athletics American 45 58   <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Red Sox American 45 58   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Brewers National 44 59   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rockies National 43 57   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Marlins National 42 60   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Phillies National 39 64   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot