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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Cardinals National 30 16   12% 20% 36% 67% 81%
Braves National 28 18   10% 18% 36% 71% 76%
Rangers American 30 17   8% 17% 35% 70% 75%
Yankees American 28 18   8% 16% 28% 52% 64%
Indians American 26 19   6% 12% 24% 47% 55%
Red Sox American 28 19   6% 11% 21% 40% 53%
Reds National 28 18   6% 10% 19% 39% 55%
Diamondbacks National 26 21   5% 10% 21% 41% 50%
Rockies National 26 21   5% 10% 21% 41% 50%
Tigers American 25 19   5% 10% 21% 41% 50%
Pirates National 28 18   5% 10% 19% 39% 54%
Giants National 26 21   5% 9% 18% 36% 44%
Rays American 24 22   4% 8% 15% 30% 42%
Athletics American 25 23   3% 7% 16% 33% 42%
Nationals National 24 23   3% 6% 13% 28% 37%
Orioles American 25 21   3% 6% 12% 25% 36%
Royals American 21 22   2% 4% 10% 20% 26%
Phillies National 23 23   2% 4% 9% 20% 27%
White Sox American 21 24   1% 2% 6% 13% 17%
Mariners American 20 27   1% 2% 4% 9% 12%
Twins American 18 25   1% 2% 4% 9% 12%
Padres National 21 25   <1% 1% 3% 7% 9%
Blue Jays American 19 27   <1% 1% 2% 5% 8%
Brewers National 18 27   <1% 1% 2% 4% 7%
Angels American 19 27   <1% 1% 2% 4% 6%
Dodgers National 19 26   <1% 1% 1% 4% 5%
Cubs National 18 27   <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
Mets National 17 27   <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
Astros American 14 33   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Marlins National 13 34   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot