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MLB Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The MLB Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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MLB Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series World Series Winner World Series League Series Division Series Wildcard Series
Team League W L
Athletics American 66 41   18% 28% 48% 86% >99%
Angels American 64 43   12% 19% 34% 69% 98%
Dodgers National 62 47   10% 24% 45% 86% 93%
Orioles American 60 47   9% 17% 35% 67% 80%
Tigers American 58 47   8% 14% 33% 72% 74%
Nationals National 58 48   7% 17% 35% 69% 76%
Brewers National 60 49   6% 14% 28% 55% 70%
Cardinals National 57 50   5% 12% 24% 49% 64%
Blue Jays American 60 50   5% 10% 23% 47% 63%
Giants National 58 50   4% 10% 20% 42% 61%
Pirates National 57 51   4% 9% 17% 35% 49%
Braves National 58 51   3% 9% 19% 39% 50%
Royals American 55 52   2% 4% 10% 22% 27%
Yankees American 55 52   2% 3% 6% 13% 20%
Reds National 54 54   1% 2% 5% 11% 17%
Indians American 53 55   1% 2% 4% 10% 12%
Mariners American 56 52   1% 2% 3% 7% 16%
Marlins National 53 55   1% 1% 3% 7% 10%
Mets National 52 56   <1% 1% 3% 6% 9%
White Sox American 53 56   <1% 1% 2% 4% 5%
Rays American 53 55   <1% <1% 1% 3% 4%
Diamondbacks National 48 61   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Padres National 48 60   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Phillies National 48 61   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Red Sox American 48 60   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Twins American 48 59   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Cubs National 45 62   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Astros American 44 65   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rockies National 44 64   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rangers American 43 65   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot