The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Air Force (3‑7) vs Boise St. (6‑3) |
2 | Air Force Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 24% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 37% | ||
| Boise St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 24% | 38% | ||
| Fresno St. (3‑6) vs UNLV (4‑4) |
0 | Fresno St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 22% | 40% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 37% | ||
| UNLV Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 17% | 24% | 36% | ||
| Utah St. (9‑0) vs San Diego St. (6‑2) |
0 | Utah St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 24% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 37% | ||
| San Diego St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 24% | 36% | ||
| Colorado St. (5‑4) vs Nevada (6‑2) |
0 | Colorado St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 24% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 37% | ||
| Nevada Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 37% | ||