The Duke Blue Devils What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Duke plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 15% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 14% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | ||
| 18 of 18 | 100% | 18 | 0 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 | 1 | 99% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 16 of 18 | 89% | 16 | 2 | 92% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 18 | 83% | 15 | 3 | 68% | 28% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 18 | 78% | 14 | 4 | 32% | 44% | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 | 5 | 7% | 27% | 37% | 22% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 18 | 67% | 12 | 6 | <1% | 5% | 18% | 32% | 29% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 | 7 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 23% | 32% | 23% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 18 | 56% | 10 | 8 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 12% | 25% | 31% | 20% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 | 9 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 28% | 30% | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 | 10 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 18% | 30% | 28% | 14% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 of 18 | 39% | 7 | 11 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 23% | 32% | 24% | 9% | 2% |
| 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 15% | 30% | 31% | 20% |
| 5 of 18 | 28% | 5 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 28% | 61% |
| 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 92% |
| 3 of 18 | 17% | 3 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 18 | 6% | 1 | 17 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 18 | 0% | 0 | 18 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |