The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5* First Round Bye |
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |||
| Air Force (3‑8) vs San Diego St. (5‑3) |
1 | Air Force Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 21% |
| Current Probabilities | 37% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | ||
| San Diego St. Wins | 20% | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | ||
| Boise St. (7‑3) vs Nevada (6‑3) |
0 | Boise St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | 47% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | ||
| Nevada Wins | 20% | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | ||
| San José State (5‑5) vs New Mexico (7‑2) |
0 | San José State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 19% |
| Current Probabilities | 48% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | ||
| New Mexico Wins | 20% | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | ||
| Colorado St. (7‑2) vs Utah St. (8‑1) |
0 | Colorado St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | 47% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | ||
| Utah St. Wins | 20% | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | ||
| UNLV (4‑5) vs Fresno St. (6‑4) |
0 | UNLV Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | ||
| Fresno St. Wins | 20% | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | ||
| Wyoming (8‑2) vs Grand Canyon (5‑3) |
0 | Wyoming Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 20% |
| Current Probabilities | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 12% | ||
| Grand Canyon Wins | 20% | 46% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | ||