The Most Important Games for the UMass Minutemen are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Minutemen final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. UMass Minutemen fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
UMass Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||
| UMass (3‑7) vs St. Joseph's (5‑4) |
7 | UMass Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 21% | 17% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| St. Joseph's Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 17% | 24% | 29% | ||
| Richmond (4‑5) vs Geo. Washington (8‑2) |
1 | Richmond Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 15% | 23% | 29% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| Geo. Washington Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 23% | 26% | ||
| La Salle (6‑3) vs Dayton (8‑2) |
0 | La Salle Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| Dayton Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 23% | 26% | ||
| Duquesne (2‑8) vs Rhode Island (9‑1) |
0 | Duquesne Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 31% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| Rhode Island Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 23% | 26% | ||
| Davidson (7‑2) vs George Mason (7‑3) |
0 | Davidson Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| George Mason Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| Fordham (6‑5) vs Saint Louis (6‑3) |
0 | Fordham Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| Saint Louis Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| VCU (8‑2) vs St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt (9‑1) |
0 | VCU Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 27% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 27% | ||
| St. BonaventureSt. Bonavnt Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 23% | 26% | ||