The Most Important Games for the Penn State Nittany Lions are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Nittany Lions final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Penn State Nittany Lions fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Remaining Games Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |||
| Michigan (10‑5‑1) vs Wisconsin (6‑9‑1) 2 Games Remaining |
1 | Michigan Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 16% | 32% | 49% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||
| Wisconsin Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 37% | 53% | ||
| Minnesota (15‑2‑1) vs Michigan State (12‑2) 2 Games Remaining |
0 | Minnesota Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 49% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||
| Michigan State Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 33% | 49% | ||
| Notre Dame (6‑10) vs Ohio State (11‑4‑1) 2 Games Remaining |
0 | Notre Dame Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 12% | 22% | 61% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||
| Ohio State Sweeps 2 Games | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 16% | 35% | 47% | ||
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |||
| Michigan (10‑5‑1) vs Wisconsin (6‑9‑1) |
0 | Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 16% | 32% | 50% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||
| Wisconsin Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 11% | 34% | 52% | ||
| Notre Dame (6‑10) vs Ohio State (11‑4‑1) |
0 | Notre Dame Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 14% | 27% | 56% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||
| Ohio State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 15% | 34% | 49% | ||
| Minnesota (15‑2‑1) vs Michigan State (12‑2) |
0 | Minnesota Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 31% | 51% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||
| Michigan State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 32% | 51% | ||