The Penn State Nittany Lions What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Penn State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRi Wins in Regulation |
WOSi Wins in OT and SO |
LOSi Losses in OT and SO |
LRi Losses in Regulation |
Ptsi Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR |
1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 16% | 37% | 44% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 54% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 10% | 26% | 63% |
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRi Wins in Regulation |
WOSi Wins in OT and SO |
LOSi Losses in OT and SO |
LRi Losses in Regulation |
Ptsi Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR |
1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Penn State Sweeps | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 20% | 43% | 32% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 54% |
| Notre Dame Sweeps | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 21% | 73% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Current Standings | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 54% |
|
Best Case Scenario None |
Worst Case Scenario None |
||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRi Wins in Regulation |
WOSi Wins in OT and SO |
LOSi Losses in OT and SO |
LRi Losses in Regulation |
Ptsi Pts = 3*WR + 2*WOS + 1*LOS + 0*LR |
1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 16 of 16 | 100% | 16 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 23% | 64% | 13% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 16 | 94% | 15 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 46 | 5% | 51% | 41% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 16 | 88% | 14 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 43 | <1% | 20% | 58% | 21% | 1% | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 40 | <1% | 5% | 40% | 48% | 7% | <1% | ^ |
| 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 37 | <1% | <1% | 16% | 57% | 26% | <1% | ^ |
| 11 of 16 | 69% | 11 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 34 | X | <1% | 4% | 42% | 52% | 3% | <1% |
| 10 of 16 | 63% | 10 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 31 | X | <1% | <1% | 20% | 68% | 12% | <1% |
| 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 28 | X | X | <1% | 5% | 61% | 32% | 1% |
| 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 25 | X | X | <1% | <1% | 36% | 57% | 7% |
| 7 of 16 | 44% | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 22 | X | X | X | <1% | 12% | 65% | 23% |
| 6 of 16 | 38% | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 19 | X | X | X | X | 1% | 49% | 50% |
| 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 25% | 75% |
| 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | 8% | 92% |
| 3 of 16 | 19% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X | 1% | 99% |
| 2 of 16 | 13% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 1 of 16 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |