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Sat Dec 14 9:00 pm

Big Sky Basketball - Week 6 of 18

Montana What If?

The Montana Grizzlies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Montana plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Montana What If?

Next Game - Eastern Washington (2‑9)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Win Next Game 1 0 32% 18% 14% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% <1%
Current Standings 0 0 30% 17% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 1%
Lose Next Game 0 1 23% 18% 14% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
Best Case Scenario 32% 18% 14% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% <1%
Current Standings 30% 17% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 23% 18% 14% 11% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Montana beats Eastern Washington
 Worst Case Scenario
   Eastern Washington beats Montana
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 91% 9% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 69% 29% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 37% 50% 13% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 10% 43% 38% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 1% 14% 43% 34% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% 1% 15% 41% 34% 8% 1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X <1% 1% 14% 40% 34% 10% 1% <1% ^
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 12% 38% 37% 11% 1% <1%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X <1% 1% 11% 38% 37% 12% 1%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X <1% 1% 12% 40% 38% 9%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X <1% 1% 17% 50% 32%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X <1% 3% 34% 63%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X <1% 13% 87%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament