The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (6‑10) vs CSU Northridge (9‑7) |
25 | Cal Poly Wins | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 34% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% | ||
| CSU Northridge Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 47% | ||
| UC San Diego (12‑3) vs CSU Fullerton (6‑10) |
1 | UC San Diego Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% | ||
| CSU Fullerton Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 45% | ||
| UC Riverside (6‑9) vs CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild (7‑9) |
1 | UC Riverside Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% | ||
| CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 43% | ||
| UC Irvine (11‑5) vs Long Beach St. (5‑10) |
0 | UC Irvine Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 14% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% | ||
| Long Beach St. Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 44% | ||
| UCSB (9‑6) vs UC Davis (8‑6) |
0 | UCSB Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 43% |
| Current Probabilities | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 43% | ||
| UC Davis Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 43% | ||