The Most Important Games for the Cal Poly Mustangs are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Mustangs final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Cal Poly Mustangs fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Cal Poly Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3** First Round Bye |
4** First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |||
| Cal Poly (5‑9) vs UC San Diego (10‑2) |
20 | Cal Poly Wins | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 46% | ||
| UC San Diego Wins | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 47% | ||
| Hawai'i (10‑2) vs UC Riverside (6‑7) |
1 | Hawai'i Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 46% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 46% | ||
| UC Riverside Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 47% | ||
| UCSB (8‑4) vs CSU Fullerton (5‑8) |
1 | UCSB Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 46% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 46% | ||
| CSU Fullerton Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 47% | ||
| UC Davis (6‑5) vs CSU Northridge (7‑5) |
1 | UC Davis Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 46% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 46% | ||
| CSU Northridge Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 47% | ||
| UC Irvine (8‑5) vs CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild (5‑8) |
0 | UC Irvine Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 46% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 46% | ||
| CSU BakersfieldCSU Bakersfild Wins | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 47% | ||