PlayoffStatus.com

Sat Sep 30 12:30 pm

Conference USA Football - Week 6 of 13

W. Kentucky What If?

The W. Kentucky Hilltoppers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how W. Kentucky plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

W. Kentucky What If?

Next Game - Louisiana Tech (3‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
2*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 2 0 21% 21% 18% 13% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1%
Current Standings 1 0 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 5% 2%
Lose Next Game 1 1 9% 12% 15% 16% 15% 13% 11% 7% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
2*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 21% 21% 18% 13% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1%
Current Standings 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 5% 2%
Worst Case Scenario 9% 12% 15% 16% 15% 13% 11% 7% 3%
Best Case Scenario
   W. Kentucky beats Louisiana Tech
Worst Case Scenario
   Louisiana Tech beats W. Kentucky
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
2*
Conference Championship
Game Participant
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
7 of 7 100% 8 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 7 86% 7 1 82% 17% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 7 71% 6 2 19% 55% 23% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 7 57% 5 3 <1% 14% 44% 33% 9% 1% ^ ^ ^
3 of 7 43% 4 4 X <1% 4% 26% 42% 24% 3% <1% ^
2 of 7 29% 3 5 X X X 1% 10% 34% 43% 12% 1%
1 of 7 14% 2 6 X X X X <1% 3% 22% 54% 21%
0 of 7 0% 1 7 X X X X X X 1% 20% 79%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes Conference Championship Game Participant