Fort Wayne Mastodons What If?

	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
	W	L	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	7^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	8^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	9^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	10	11
Win Next Game	3	1	22%	16%	14%	11%	11%	9%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
Current Standings	2	1	21%	16%	13%	12%	10%	9%	7%	6%	4%	2%	1%
Lose Next Game	2	2	15%	15%	13%	12%	11%	10%	9%	7%	5%	3%	1%

	Regular Season Finish
	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	7^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	8^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	9^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	10	11
Best Case Scenario	22%	16%	14%	11%	11%	9%	7%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
Current Standings	21%	16%	13%	12%	10%	9%	7%	6%	4%	2%	1%
Worst Case Scenario	15%	15%	13%	12%	11%	10%	9%	7%	5%	3%	1%
Best Case Scenario Fort Wayne beats Green Bay						Worst Case Scenario Green Bay beats Fort Wayne

Notes
Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three

Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	Resultant Record		Regular Season Finish
Remaining Games Won	Winning Percentage of Remaining Games	W	L	1^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	2^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	3^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	4^* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Court Advantage	5^** First Round Bye	6^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	7^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	8^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	9^*** First Round Home Court Advantage	10	11
17 of 17	100%	19	1	100%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
16 of 17	94%	18	2	99%	1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
15 of 17	88%	17	3	95%	5%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
14 of 17	82%	16	4	79%	20%	1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^	^
13 of 17	76%	15	5	50%	43%	7%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^	^
12 of 17	71%	14	6	20%	49%	27%	4%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^	^
11 of 17	65%	13	7	4%	27%	45%	22%	3%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^	^
10 of 17	59%	12	8	<1%	6%	28%	42%	21%	4%	<1%	<1%	^	^	^
9 of 17	53%	11	9	<1%	<1%	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%	<1%	<1%	^	^
8 of 17	47%	10	10	X	<1%	<1%	5%	26%	41%	23%	4%	<1%	<1%	^
7 of 17	41%	9	11	X	X	<1%	<1%	4%	24%	41%	25%	5%	<1%	<1%
6 of 17	35%	8	12	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	4%	24%	43%	24%	5%	<1%
5 of 17	29%	7	13	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	5%	26%	44%	22%	3%
4 of 17	24%	6	14	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	<1%	7%	34%	44%	15%
3 of 17	18%	5	15	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	1%	14%	47%	39%
2 of 17	12%	4	16	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	3%	30%	67%
1 of 17	6%	3	17	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	<1%	11%	89%
0 of 17	0%	2	18	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	1%	99%

Notes
^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
Table Sorting Method
* denotes first round bye and second round home court advantage in the post season conference tournament
** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
***denotes first round home court advantage in the post season conference tournament

Horizon Basketball - Week 6 of 17