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Sun Sep 1 5:30 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 4 of 40

Auxerre What If?

The Auxerre What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Auxerre What If?

Next Game - AS Monaco (2‑0‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 2 2 0 6 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 9%
Current Standings 1 2 0 3 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 12%
Lose Next Game 1 3 0 3 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 17%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 9%
Current Standings 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 12%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 17%
Best Case Scenario
   Auxerre beats AS Monaco
 Worst Case Scenario
   AS Monaco beats Auxerre
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
31 of 31 100% 32 2 0 96 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 31 3 0 93 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 26 8 0 78 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 31 68% 22 12 0 66 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 31 65% 21 13 0 63 74% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 31 61% 20 14 0 60 43% 42% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 of 31 58% 19 15 0 57 13% 34% 34% 15% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
17 of 31 55% 18 16 0 54 1% 7% 23% 33% 24% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
16 of 31 52% 17 17 0 51 <1% <1% 1% 6% 19% 30% 27% 13% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 31 48% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 24% 30% 22% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 31 45% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 13% 27% 30% 19% 6% 1% <1% <1%
13 of 31 42% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 21% 32% 25% 10% 2%
12 of 31 39% 13 21 0 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 36% 30%
11 of 31 35% 12 22 0 36 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 20% 76%
10 of 31 32% 11 23 0 33 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 96%
5 of 31 16% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 1 33 0 3 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff