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Sun Sep 1 5:30 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 4 of 40

Lens What If?

The Lens What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lens What If?

Next Game - Lyon (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 3 0 1 10 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3%
Current Standings 2 0 1 7 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4%
Lose Next Game 2 1 1 7 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 13% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3%
Current Standings 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7%
Best Case Scenario
   Lens beats Lyon
 Worst Case Scenario
   Lyon beats Lens
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
31 of 31 100% 33 0 1 100 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 32 1 1 97 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 27 6 1 82 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 31 65% 22 11 1 67 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 31 61% 21 12 1 64 82% 17% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 31 58% 20 13 1 61 56% 36% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
17 of 31 55% 19 14 1 58 22% 42% 27% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
16 of 31 52% 18 15 1 55 3% 16% 32% 30% 15% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
15 of 31 48% 17 16 1 52 <1% 1% 5% 17% 30% 28% 15% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 31 45% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 24% 30% 22% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 31 42% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 13% 26% 30% 19% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 31 39% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 18% 30% 27% 13% 3% <1%
11 of 31 35% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 32% 31% 15%
10 of 31 32% 12 21 1 37 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 28% 62%
9 of 31 29% 11 22 1 34 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 92%
5 of 31 16% 7 26 1 22 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 2 31 1 7 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff