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Mon Oct 20 6:15 am

Ligue 1 - Week 10 of 40

Lyon What If?

The Lyon What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lyon What If?

Next Game - Strasbourg (5‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 6 3 0 18 2% 5% 10% 12% 14% 13% 12% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5 3 0 15 2% 5% 8% 11% 13% 13% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 5 4 0 15 1% 3% 6% 10% 12% 14% 13% 11% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 3% 6% 10% 13% 13% 14% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 2% 5% 8% 11% 13% 13% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 3% 6% 10% 12% 13% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Nantes beats Paris FC
   Metz beats Lille
   Lyon beats Strasbourg
 Worst Case Scenario
   Paris FC beats Nantes
   Lille beats Metz
   Strasbourg beats Lyon
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
26 of 26 100% 31 3 0 93 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 26 96% 30 4 0 90 98% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 26 92% 29 5 0 87 92% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 26 88% 28 6 0 84 79% 20% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 26 85% 27 7 0 81 59% 36% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 26 81% 26 8 0 78 35% 48% 16% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 26 77% 25 9 0 75 17% 45% 32% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 26 73% 24 10 0 72 6% 30% 42% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 26 69% 23 11 0 69 2% 14% 39% 34% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 26 65% 22 12 0 66 <1% 5% 23% 40% 26% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 26 62% 21 13 0 63 <1% 1% 9% 30% 38% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 26 58% 20 14 0 60 <1% <1% 2% 13% 35% 35% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 26 54% 19 15 0 57 <1% <1% <1% 3% 19% 36% 30% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 26 50% 18 16 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 38% 26% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
12 of 26 46% 17 17 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 24% 36% 24% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 26 42% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 25% 34% 25% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 26 38% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 23% 34% 25% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 26 35% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 34% 26% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 26 31% 13 21 0 39 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 19% 34% 28% 11% 2% <1% <1%
7 of 26 27% 12 22 0 36 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2% <1%
6 of 26 23% 11 23 0 33 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 36% 32% 11% 1%
5 of 26 19% 10 24 0 30 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 18% 41% 32% 6%
4 of 26 15% 9 25 0 27 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 24% 48% 23%
3 of 26 12% 8 26 0 24 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 40% 53%
2 of 26 8% 7 27 0 21 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 20% 78%
1 of 26 4% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 6% 94%
0 of 26 0% 5 29 0 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 1% 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff