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Sun Sep 14 6:00 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 5 of 40

Metz What If?

The Metz What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Metz What If?

Next Game - AS Monaco (3‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 1 3 1 4 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 18%
Current Standings 0 3 1 1 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 26%
Lose Next Game 0 4 1 1 <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 11% 31%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 18%
Current Standings 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 26%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 11% 31%
Best Case Scenario
   Metz beats AS Monaco
 Worst Case Scenario
   AS Monaco beats Metz
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
30 of 30 100% 30 3 1 91 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 25 8 1 76 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 30 73% 22 11 1 67 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 30 70% 21 12 1 64 80% 18% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 30 67% 20 13 1 61 54% 37% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 30 63% 19 14 1 58 21% 41% 28% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 30 60% 18 15 1 55 2% 14% 31% 32% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 30 57% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% 4% 15% 29% 29% 17% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 22% 30% 24% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 30 50% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 11% 24% 30% 21% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 30 47% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 29% 29% 15% 4% <1%
13 of 30 43% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 14% 30% 32% 19%
12 of 30 40% 12 21 1 37 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 26% 66%
11 of 30 37% 11 22 1 34 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 93%
10 of 30 33% 10 23 1 31 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
5 of 30 17% 5 28 1 16 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 30 0% 0 33 1 1 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff