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Mon Feb 6 9:15 am

Ligue 1 - Week 28 of 44

Montpellier What If?

The Montpellier What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Montpellier What If?

Next Game - Brest (4‑10‑8)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Next Game 7 14 2 23 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 21% 23% 19% 21%
Current Standings 6 14 2 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 7% 17% 20% 20% 31%
Lose Next Game 6 15 2 20 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 11% 19% 22% 41%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 22% 23% 19% 20%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 7% 17% 20% 20% 31%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 11% 15% 19% 48%
Best Case Scenario
   Nice beats Ajaccio
   Lille beats Strasbourg
   Montpellier beats Brest
 Worst Case Scenario
   Ajaccio beats Nice
   Strasbourg beats Lille
   Brest beats Montpellier
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 4#
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 5##
UEFA Europa League
Qualifier
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
16 of 16 100% 22 14 2 68 <1% <1% 3% 16% 40% 32% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% <1% 2% 18% 40% 31% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 17% 40% 33% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 40% 32% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 16 75% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 37% 34% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 16 69% 17 19 2 53 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 12% 34% 36% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 16 63% 16 20 2 50 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 31% 39% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 16 56% 15 21 2 47 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 30% 43% 18% 1% <1% <1%
8 of 16 50% 14 22 2 44 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 35% 45% 11% 1% <1%
7 of 16 44% 13 23 2 41 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 10% 46% 35% 7% 1%
6 of 16 38% 12 24 2 38 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 20% 45% 28% 6%
5 of 16 31% 11 25 2 35 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 25% 45% 26%
4 of 16 25% 10 26 2 32 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 29% 66%
3 of 16 19% 9 27 2 29 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 94%
2 of 16 13% 8 28 2 26 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 16 6% 7 29 2 23 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 16 0% 6 30 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League Qualifiers