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Sat Aug 29 3:15 pm

Ligue 1 - Week 2 of 41

Troyes What If?

The Troyes What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Troyes What If?

Next Game - Lorient (0‑0‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 1 0 1 4 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8%
Current Standings 0 0 1 1 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 12%
Lose Next Game 0 1 1 1 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 15%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 8%
Current Standings 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 12%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 15%
Best Case Scenario
   Troyes beats Lorient
 Worst Case Scenario
   Lorient beats Troyes
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Ligue 1 Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4***
UEFA Champions League
Qualifier
 5#
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6##
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16###
Relegation
Playoff
33 of 33 100% 33 0 1 100 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 30 3 1 91 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 33 76% 25 8 1 76 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 33 64% 21 12 1 64 86% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 33 61% 20 13 1 61 62% 32% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 33 58% 19 14 1 58 28% 43% 24% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 33 55% 18 15 1 55 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 33 52% 17 16 1 52 <1% 1% 7% 21% 30% 26% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 33 48% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 12% 26% 30% 20% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 33 45% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 15% 27% 29% 17% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 33 42% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 19% 30% 27% 12% 3% <1%
13 of 33 39% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 32% 30% 16%
12 of 33 36% 12 21 1 37 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 28% 63%
11 of 33 33% 11 22 1 34 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 92%
10 of 33 30% 10 23 1 31 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
5 of 33 15% 5 28 1 16 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 33 0% 0 33 1 1 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Ligue 1 Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • ##  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ###  denotes Relegation Playoff