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Mon Dec 11 6:45 am

MAC Basketball - Week 6 of 18

Akron What If?

The Akron Zips What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Akron plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Akron What If?

Next Game - Northern Illinois (5‑4)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 1 0 22% 16% 14% 11% 10% 8% 7% 5% 7%
Current Standings 0 0 18% 15% 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 10%
Lose Next Game 0 1 13% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 12%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario 22% 16% 14% 11% 10% 8% 7% 5% 7%
Current Standings 18% 15% 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 10%
Worst Case Scenario 13% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 12%
Best Case Scenario
   Akron beats Northern Illinois
Worst Case Scenario
   Northern Illinois beats Akron
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NT
18 of 18 100% 18 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 18 94% 17 1 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 18 89% 16 2 95% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 18 83% 15 3 79% 20% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 18 78% 14 4 47% 44% 9% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 18 72% 13 5 17% 46% 31% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
12 of 18 67% 12 6 3% 21% 43% 28% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^
11 of 18 61% 11 7 <1% 3% 20% 40% 29% 7% 1% <1% ^
10 of 18 56% 10 8 <1% <1% 2% 17% 39% 31% 10% 1% <1%
9 of 18 50% 9 9 X X <1% 1% 13% 36% 34% 13% 2%
8 of 18 44% 8 10 X X X <1% 1% 10% 33% 37% 19%
7 of 18 39% 7 11 X X X X <1% 1% 8% 30% 61%
6 of 18 33% 6 12 X X X X X <1% <1% 7% 93%
5 of 18 28% 5 13 X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
4 of 18 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X <1% >99%
3 of 18 17% 3 15 X X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 18 11% 2 16 X X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 18 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 18 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method