The Most Important Games for the Illinois St. Redbirds are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Redbirds final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Illinois St. Redbirds fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Illinois St. Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3* First Round Bye |
4* First Round Bye |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| Illinois St. (9‑3) vs Drake (7‑6) |
8 | Illinois St. Wins | 19% | 20% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 13% | 17% | ||
| Drake Wins | 18% | 17% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ?? | ?? | ?? | ||
| Murray State (10‑3) vs Southern Illinois (6‑7) |
1 | Murray State Wins | 17% | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% | 19% | ||
| Southern Illinois Wins | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ?? | ?? | ?? | ||
| Northern Iowa (9‑2) vs Valparaiso (6‑6) |
1 | Northern Iowa Wins | 17% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% | 19% | ||
| Valparaiso Wins | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ?? | ?? | ?? | ||
| Evansville (4‑9) vs Bradley (8‑4) |
1 | Evansville Wins | 18% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% | 19% | ||
| Bradley Wins | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ?? | ?? | ?? | ||
| Belmont (12‑1) vs Indiana St. (7‑6) |
0 | Belmont Wins | 17% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 18% |
| Current Probabilities | 19% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 19% | 19% | ||
| Indiana St. Wins | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ?? | ?? | ?? | ||