The Most Important Games for the Air Force Falcons are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Falcons final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Air Force Falcons fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Air Force Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| Utah St. (3‑3) vs San José State (2‑4) |
0 | Utah St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 27% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 26% | 31% | ||
| San José State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 27% | 33% | ||
| Air Force (1‑5) vs Wyoming (3‑3) |
0 | Air Force Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 26% | 16% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 26% | 31% | ||
| Wyoming Wins | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 29% | 39% | ||
| Boise State (4‑2) vs UNLV (6‑0) |
0 | Boise State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 27% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 26% | 31% | ||
| UNLV Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 27% | 31% | ||
| Colorado St. (2‑4) vs Hawaii (5‑2) |
0 | Colorado St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 15% | 28% | 32% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 26% | 31% | ||
| Hawaii Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 25% | 30% | ||
| New Mexico (3‑3) vs Nevada (1‑5) |
0 | New Mexico Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 27% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 26% | 31% | ||
| Nevada Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 14% | 21% | 39% | ||