The Boise State Broncos What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Boise State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 0 | 53% | 28% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 4 | 0 | 47% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 1 | 31% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 57% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 47% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 30% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario New Mexico beats UNLV Boise State beats Fresno State San José State beats Hawaii |
Worst Case Scenario UNLV beats New Mexico Fresno State beats Boise State Hawaii beats San José State |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 4 of 4 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 4 | 75% | 7 | 1 | 79% | 19% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 4 | 50% | 6 | 2 | 17% | 41% | 33% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 4 | 25% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 4% | 19% | 34% | 32% | 10% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 4 | 0% | 4 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% | 1% | 10% | 28% | 34% | 22% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |