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Wed Jan 25 9:30 pm

Patriot League Basketball - Week 12 of 16

Loyola-MD What If?

The Loyola-MD Greyhounds What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Loyola-MD plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Loyola-MD What If?

Next Game - Bucknell (8‑14)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 3 7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 23% 52% 8%
Current Standings 2 7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 7% 18% 43% 26%
Lose Next Game 2 8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 13% 35% 44%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 23% 52% 8%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 7% 18% 43% 26%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 5% 13% 35% 44%
Best Case Scenario
   Loyola-MD beats Bucknell
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bucknell beats Loyola-MD
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3*
First Round Bye
 4*
First Round Bye
 5*
First Round Bye
 6*
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 8**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
9 of 9 100% 11 7 <1% 24% 57% 17% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 9 89% 10 8 <1% 2% 28% 46% 21% 3% <1% ^ ^ ^
7 of 9 78% 9 9 X <1% 2% 20% 42% 29% 7% <1% <1% ^
6 of 9 67% 8 10 X X <1% 1% 11% 37% 37% 13% 1% <1%
5 of 9 56% 7 11 X X X <1% <1% 6% 33% 44% 16% <1%
4 of 9 44% 6 12 X X X X X <1% 5% 38% 53% 4%
3 of 9 33% 5 13 X X X X X X <1% 10% 70% 20%
2 of 9 22% 4 14 X X X X X X X 1% 52% 48%
1 of 9 11% 3 15 X X X X X X X <1% 23% 77%
0 of 9 0% 2 16 X X X X X X X X 3% 97%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament