The Most Important Games for the James Madison Dukes are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Dukes final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. James Madison Dukes fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
James Madison Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| James Madison (13‑13) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (18‑9) |
99 | James Madison Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 5% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 18% | 25% | 20% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑21) vs Texas State (16‑11) |
24 | UL Monroe Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 20% | 13% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Texas State Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Troy (17‑9) vs Southern Miss (13‑14) |
17 | Troy Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 20% | 13% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Southern Miss Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 15% | 19% | 21% | 14% | <1% | ||
| Marshall (16‑9) vs Georgia Southern (13‑12) |
9 | Marshall Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 19% | 13% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 23% | 14% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama (18‑7) vs Arkansas St. (16‑10) |
8 | South Alabama Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion (8‑18) vs Georgia St. (9‑17) |
6 | Old Dominion Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 18% | 16% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 13% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 25% | 10% | <1% | ||