The Most Important Games for the Marshall Thundering Herd are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Thundering Herd final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Marshall Thundering Herd fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Marshall Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Marshall (5‑4) vs Troy (5‑5) |
319 | Marshall Wins | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Troy Wins | 7% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Texas State (6‑5) vs Arkansas St. (6‑3) |
37 | Texas State Wins | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| UL Monroe (2‑6) vs South Alabama (8‑2) |
33 | UL Monroe Wins | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. (5‑5) vs Coastal Carolina (6‑4) |
21 | Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | 11% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Georgia St. (1‑9) vs Georgia Southern (6‑5) |
20 | Georgia St. Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Old Dominion (3‑7) vs James Madison (7‑4) |
18 | Old Dominion Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| James Madison Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| LA Lafayette (1‑8) vs Southern Miss (5‑4) |
15 | LA Lafayette Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Southern Miss Wins | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||