The Most Important Games for the Marshall Thundering Herd are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Thundering Herd final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Marshall Thundering Herd fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Marshall Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Marshall (16‑9) vs Georgia Southern (13‑12) |
531 | Marshall Wins | 17% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | 6% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| James Madison (13‑13) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (18‑9) |
115 | James Madison Wins | 13% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | 14% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑21) vs Texas State (16‑11) |
88 | UL Monroe Wins | 14% | 22% | 20% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Texas State Wins | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Southern Miss (13‑14) vs Troy (17‑9) |
75 | Southern Miss Wins | 21% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Troy Wins | 9% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Arkansas St. (16‑10) vs South Alabama (18‑7) |
40 | Arkansas St. Wins | 14% | 22% | 18% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 12% | 19% | 20% | 19% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Old Dominion (8‑18) vs Georgia St. (9‑17) |
3 | Old Dominion Wins | 13% | 20% | 19% | 16% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Current Probabilities | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | 13% | 21% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ||