The Most Important Games for the Texas State Bobcats are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Bobcats final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Texas State Bobcats fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Texas State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Texas State (7‑3) vs Georgia Southern (6‑4) |
26 | Texas State Wins | 18% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern Wins | 10% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Southern Miss (4‑6) vs Marshall (5‑5) |
3 | Southern Miss Wins | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Marshall Wins | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette (2‑8) vs Appalachian St.App.St. (6‑3) |
1 | LA Lafayette Wins | 16% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App.St. Wins | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑7) vs Old Dominion (2‑7) |
1 | UL Monroe Wins | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion Wins | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. (4‑5) vs Troy (5‑4) |
0 | Georgia St. Wins | 16% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Troy Wins | 15% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina (5‑5) vs Arkansas St. (8‑3) |
0 | Coastal Carolina Wins | 17% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 16% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| James Madison (6‑4) vs South Alabama (6‑3) |
0 | James Madison Wins | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 15% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 15% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | ||