The Most Important Games for the New Mexico St. Aggies are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Aggies final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. New Mexico St. Aggies fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
New Mexico St. Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
2* First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
3** First and Second Round Byes |
4** First and Second Round Byes |
5*** First Round Bye |
6*** First Round Bye |
7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | NT | |||
| New Mexico St. (9‑14) vs Grand Canyon (15‑8) |
20 | New Mexico St. Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 18% | 58% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||
| Grand Canyon Wins | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 78% | ||
| Seattle (16‑8) vs Utah Tech (11‑13) |
4 | Seattle Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 71% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||
| Utah Tech Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 75% | ||
| Sam Houston (17‑6) vs Abilene Christian (13‑11) |
3 | Sam Houston Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 71% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||
| Abilene Christian Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 74% | ||
| Utah Valley (18‑6) vs California Baptist (13‑11) |
1 | Utah Valley Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||
| California Baptist Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 73% | ||
| UT-Rio Grande Valley (12‑12) vs UT Arlington (8‑15) |
1 | UT-Rio Grande Valley Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||
| UT Arlington Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 73% | ||
| Southern Utah (16‑8) vs Tarleton (12‑11) |
1 | Southern Utah Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% |
| Current Probabilities | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||
| Tarleton Wins | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 8% | 13% | 72% | ||