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Sun Feb 5 12:15 am

WAC Basketball - Week 14 of 17

New Mexico St. What If?

The New Mexico St. Aggies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how New Mexico St. plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

New Mexico St. What If?

Next Game - Grand Canyon (15‑8)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 3**
First and Second
Round Byes
 4**
First and Second
Round Byes
 5***
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10 NT
Win Next Game 3 9 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 8% 11% 18% 58%
Current Standings 2 9 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 8% 13% 72%
Lose Next Game 2 10 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 6% 11% 78%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 3**
First and Second
Round Byes
 4**
First and Second
Round Byes
 5***
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10 NT
Best Case Scenario X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 9% 13% 17% 57%
Current Standings X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 8% 13% 72%
Worst Case Scenario X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 10% 82%
Best Case Scenario
   Seattle beats Utah Tech
   New Mexico St. beats Grand Canyon
   Sam Houston beats Abilene Christian
 Worst Case Scenario
   Utah Tech beats Seattle
   Grand Canyon beats New Mexico St.
   Abilene Christian beats Sam Houston
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 3**
First and Second
Round Byes
 4**
First and Second
Round Byes
 5***
First Round Bye
 6***
First Round Bye
 7 8 9 10 NT
7 of 7 100% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 7% 40% 44% 9% <1% <1% <1%
6 of 7 86% 8 10 X X X X <1% 7% 39% 42% 11% 1% <1%
5 of 7 71% 7 11 X X X X X <1% 6% 31% 40% 20% 4%
4 of 7 57% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% 3% 18% 41% 37%
3 of 7 43% 5 13 X X X X X X X <1% 1% 12% 87%
2 of 7 29% 4 14 X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 7 14% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 7 0% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first, second, and third round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • *** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament