The Most Important Games for the St. Mary's Gaels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Gaels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. St. Mary's Gaels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
St. Mary's Resultant Probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
| 1* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
2* First, Second, Third and Fourth Round Byes |
3** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
4** First, Second, and Third Round Byes |
5*** First and Second Round Byes |
6*** First and Second Round Byes |
7# First Round Bye |
8# First Round Bye |
9# First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | |||
| St. Mary's (15‑1) vs Washington St. (8‑8) |
123 | St. Mary's Wins | 36% | 45% | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Washington St. Wins | <1% | <1% | 24% | 43% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Gonzaga (16‑0) vs Santa Clara (12‑4) |
23 | Gonzaga Wins | 32% | 46% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Santa Clara Wins | <1% | <1% | 44% | 32% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Loyola Marymount (10‑7) vs San Francisco (11‑5) |
14 | Loyola Marymount Wins | 35% | 45% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San Francisco Wins | <1% | <1% | 35% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Oregon St. (8‑9) vs Seattle (12‑5) |
7 | Oregon St. Wins | 34% | 44% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Seattle Wins | <1% | <1% | 35% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Portland (7‑10) vs Pacific (11‑6) |
5 | Portland Wins | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pacific Wins | <1% | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Pepperdine (5‑12) vs San Diego (6‑10) |
3 | Pepperdine Wins | 35% | 44% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | 34% | 43% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| San Diego Wins | <1% | <1% | 34% | 44% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||