The Missouri St. Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Missouri St. plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 2 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 23% | 27% | 8% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 1 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 18% | 9% |
| Lose Next Game | 1 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 20% | 32% | 19% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 23% | 27% | 8% | 1% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 22% | 18% | 9% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 20% | 32% | 19% |
|
Best Case Scenario Missouri St. beats Sam Houston |
Worst Case Scenario Sam Houston beats Missouri St. |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
| 5 of 5 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 16% | 45% | 35% | 4% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 5% | 29% | 43% | 21% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 5 | 60% | 4 | 4 | X | X | 1% | 12% | 32% | 37% | 16% | 2% | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | <1% | 3% | 15% | 39% | 36% | 7% | <1% |
| 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 33% | 50% | 11% |
| 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 3% | 41% | 55% |