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Mon Jul 20 8:45 am

MLB - Week 18 of 27

Red Sox What If?

The Red Sox What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Red Sox play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Red Sox What If?

Next Game - Orioles (49‑51)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 51 48 4% 2% 1% 15% 22% 15% 40%
Current Standings 50 48 3% 2% <1% 14% 21% 16% 43%
Lose Next Game 50 49 3% 2% <1% 12% 19% 15% 49%


Current Series - Orioles (49‑51) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Red Sox Sweeps 53 48 5% 2% 1% 18% 25% 17% 33%
Current Standings 50 48 3% 2% <1% 14% 21% 16% 43%
Orioles Sweeps 50 51 2% 1% <1% 9% 17% 15% 57%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
64 of 64 100% 114 48 >99% X X <1% ^ ^ ^
60 of 64 94% 110 52 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
50 of 64 78% 100 62 97% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1%
49 of 64 77% 99 63 94% <1% <1% 6% <1% <1% <1%
48 of 64 75% 98 64 90% 1% <1% 9% <1% <1% <1%
47 of 64 73% 97 65 86% 1% <1% 13% <1% <1% <1%
46 of 64 72% 96 66 78% 2% <1% 19% 1% <1% <1%
45 of 64 70% 95 67 69% 3% <1% 26% 1% <1% <1%
44 of 64 69% 94 68 58% 5% <1% 34% 3% <1% <1%
43 of 64 67% 93 69 47% 7% <1% 41% 6% <1% <1%
42 of 64 66% 92 70 34% 9% <1% 49% 8% <1% <1%
41 of 64 64% 91 71 22% 10% 1% 52% 15% <1% <1%
40 of 64 63% 90 72 14% 10% 1% 53% 22% <1% <1%
39 of 64 61% 89 73 6% 9% 1% 49% 32% 2% <1%
38 of 64 59% 88 74 4% 6% 2% 43% 41% 4% <1%
37 of 64 58% 87 75 1% 4% 2% 34% 50% 10% 1%
36 of 64 56% 86 76 <1% 2% 1% 22% 53% 20% 2%
35 of 64 55% 85 77 <1% 1% 1% 13% 49% 30% 6%
34 of 64 53% 84 78 <1% <1% <1% 6% 37% 39% 17%
33 of 64 52% 83 79 <1% <1% <1% 2% 23% 42% 32%
32 of 64 50% 82 80 <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 35% 54%
31 of 64 48% 81 81 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 22% 74%
30 of 64 47% 80 82 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 88%
20 of 64 31% 70 92 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
10 of 64 16% 60 102 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 64 0% 50 112 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs