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Mon Jul 20 8:45 am

MLB - Week 18 of 27

Reds What If?

The Reds What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Reds play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Reds What If?

Next Game - Mariners (50‑50)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 46 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
Current Standings 45 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
Lose Next Game 45 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%


Current Series - Mariners (50‑50) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Reds Sweeps 48 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
Current Standings 45 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
Mariners Sweeps 45 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
64 of 64 100% 109 53 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
60 of 64 94% 105 57 95% 2% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1%
59 of 64 92% 104 58 91% 3% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
58 of 64 91% 103 59 84% 6% <1% 10% <1% <1% <1%
57 of 64 89% 102 60 76% 10% <1% 14% <1% <1% <1%
56 of 64 88% 101 61 66% 13% <1% 20% <1% <1% <1%
55 of 64 86% 100 62 53% 18% 1% 29% <1% <1% <1%
54 of 64 84% 99 63 41% 22% 1% 36% <1% <1% <1%
53 of 64 83% 98 64 29% 23% 2% 45% <1% <1% <1%
52 of 64 81% 97 65 19% 23% 3% 54% 1% <1% <1%
51 of 64 80% 96 66 11% 20% 5% 62% 3% <1% <1%
50 of 64 78% 95 67 5% 16% 5% 69% 5% <1% <1%
49 of 64 77% 94 68 2% 10% 6% 72% 10% <1% <1%
48 of 64 75% 93 69 1% 6% 6% 69% 17% 1% <1%
47 of 64 73% 92 70 <1% 3% 4% 63% 27% 3% <1%
46 of 64 72% 91 71 <1% 1% 3% 51% 37% 7% <1%
45 of 64 70% 90 72 <1% <1% 1% 37% 44% 15% 2%
44 of 64 69% 89 73 <1% <1% 1% 22% 44% 26% 7%
43 of 64 67% 88 74 <1% <1% <1% 12% 36% 35% 17%
42 of 64 66% 87 75 <1% <1% <1% 5% 24% 37% 33%
41 of 64 64% 86 76 <1% <1% <1% 1% 12% 31% 55%
40 of 64 63% 85 77 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 20% 76%
39 of 64 61% 84 78 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 90%
30 of 64 47% 75 87 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
20 of 64 31% 65 97 X X X X <1% <1% >99%
10 of 64 16% 55 107 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 64 0% 45 117 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs