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Sun Mar 8 10:45 pm

MLS - Week 4 of 38

Earthquakes What If?

The Earthquakes What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Earthquakes play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Earthquakes What If?

Next Game - Sounders (2‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 4 0 0 12 17% 14% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 16%
Current Standings 3 0 0 9 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 22%
Lose Next Game 3 1 0 9 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 29%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 16% 13% 12% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 5% 16%
Current Standings 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 22%
Worst Case Scenario 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 30%
Best Case Scenario
   San Diego FC beats FC Dallas
   Earthquakes beats Sounders
 Worst Case Scenario
   FC Dallas beats San Diego FC
   Sounders beats Earthquakes
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
31 of 31 100% 34 0 0 102 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 33 1 0 99 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 28 6 0 84 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 31 65% 23 11 0 69 98% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 31 61% 22 12 0 66 93% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 31 58% 21 13 0 63 77% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 31 55% 20 14 0 60 50% 39% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 31 52% 19 15 0 57 19% 39% 30% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 31 48% 18 16 0 54 2% 14% 31% 32% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 31 45% 17 17 0 51 <1% 1% 5% 17% 30% 29% 15% 4% 1% <1%
13 of 31 42% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 14% 28% 29% 18% 7%
12 of 31 39% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 24% 63%
10 of 31 32% 13 21 0 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 31 16% 8 26 0 24 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 3 31 0 9 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs