The Most Important Games for the Marshall Thundering Herd are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Thundering Herd final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Marshall Thundering Herd fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Marshall Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First through Fifth Round Byes |
2* First through Fifth Round Byes |
3** First through Fourth Round Byes |
4** First through Fourth Round Byes |
5*** First through Third Round Byes |
6*** First through Third Round Byes |
7# First and Second Round Byes |
8# First and Second Round Byes |
9## First Round Bye |
10## First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Marshall (15‑8) vs Old Dominion (7‑17) |
498 | Marshall Wins | 9% | 32% | 22% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Old Dominion Wins | 3% | 21% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia Southern (13‑11) vs Appalachian St.App. St. (16‑9) |
99 | Georgia Southern Wins | 8% | 33% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Appalachian St.App. St. Wins | 8% | 27% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Southern Miss (12‑13) vs South Alabama (16‑7) |
96 | Southern Miss Wins | 9% | 31% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| South Alabama Wins | 8% | 27% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| LA Lafayette (8‑16) vs Coastal Carolina (14‑11) |
53 | LA Lafayette Wins | 8% | 30% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Coastal Carolina Wins | 8% | 29% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Troy (16‑8) vs Texas State (14‑11) |
43 | Troy Wins | 4% | 32% | 22% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Texas State Wins | 13% | 24% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| UL Monroe (4‑19) vs Arkansas St. (14‑10) |
35 | UL Monroe Wins | 8% | 28% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Arkansas St. Wins | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| James Madison (11‑13) vs Georgia St. (9‑15) |
15 | James Madison Wins | 8% | 29% | 21% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Current Probabilities | 8% | 29% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Georgia St. Wins | 8% | 29% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||