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Sat Jun 20 11:00 pm

WNBA - Week 7 of 21

Aces What If?

The Aces What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Aces play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Aces What If?

Next Game - Valkyries (10‑6)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 12 4 22% 21% 16% 13% 9% 7% 5% 3% 3%
Current Standings 11 4 21% 19% 16% 13% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4%
Lose Next Game 11 5 17% 18% 16% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 22% 21% 16% 13% 9% 7% 5% 3% 3%
Current Standings 21% 19% 16% 13% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4%
Worst Case Scenario 17% 18% 16% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   Aces beats Valkyries
 Worst Case Scenario
   Valkyries beats Aces
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
29 of 29 100% 40 4 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 29 86% 36 8 92% 8% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 29 83% 35 9 81% 18% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 29 79% 34 10 66% 31% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 29 76% 33 11 47% 43% 9% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 29 72% 32 12 30% 48% 20% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
20 of 29 69% 31 13 15% 43% 34% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
19 of 29 66% 30 14 6% 32% 41% 19% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^
18 of 29 62% 29 15 2% 16% 40% 32% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 29 59% 28 16 <1% 6% 26% 39% 24% 5% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 29 55% 27 17 <1% 2% 11% 33% 35% 16% 2% <1% <1%
15 of 29 52% 26 18 <1% <1% 3% 18% 36% 31% 11% 1% <1%
14 of 29 48% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7% 1%
13 of 29 45% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 27% 37% 21% 5%
12 of 29 41% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 32% 34% 20%
11 of 29 38% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 35% 45%
10 of 29 34% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 21% 73%
9 of 29 31% 20 24 X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 91%
5 of 29 17% 16 28 X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 29 0% 11 33 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs