The Mercury What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Mercury play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| Win Next Game | 6 | 12 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 89% |
| Current Standings | 5 | 12 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 91% |
| Lose Next Game | 5 | 13 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 93% |
| Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 89% |
| Current Standings | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 91% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 93% |
|
Best Case Scenario Mercury beats Fever |
Worst Case Scenario Fever beats Mercury |
||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | ||
| 27 of 27 | 100% | 32 | 12 | 28% | 49% | 21% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 26 of 27 | 96% | 31 | 13 | 13% | 42% | 34% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 25 of 27 | 93% | 30 | 14 | 5% | 28% | 42% | 22% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 24 of 27 | 89% | 29 | 15 | 1% | 13% | 36% | 35% | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 23 of 27 | 85% | 28 | 16 | <1% | 5% | 22% | 38% | 26% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 22 of 27 | 81% | 27 | 17 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 30% | 37% | 19% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 21 of 27 | 78% | 26 | 18 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 34% | 33% | 14% | 2% | <1% |
| 20 of 27 | 74% | 25 | 19 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 19% | 37% | 30% | 9% | 1% |
| 19 of 27 | 70% | 24 | 20 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 24% | 39% | 24% | 7% |
| 18 of 27 | 67% | 23 | 21 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 29% | 37% | 23% |
| 17 of 27 | 63% | 22 | 22 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 33% | 51% |
| 16 of 27 | 59% | 21 | 23 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 19% | 76% |
| 15 of 27 | 56% | 20 | 24 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 92% |
| 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 | 29 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 5 of 27 | 19% | 10 | 34 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 27 | 0% | 5 | 39 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |