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Sat Jun 20 11:00 pm

WNBA - Week 7 of 21

Sparks What If?

The Sparks What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Sparks play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Sparks What If?

Next Game - Liberty (11‑5)

  Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 8 8 <1% 1% 2% 5% 7% 9% 11% 11% 55%
Current Standings 7 8 <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 11% 58%
Lose Next Game 7 9 <1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 12% 62%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 5% 7% 9% 11% 11% 55%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 11% 58%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 12% 62%
Best Case Scenario
   Sparks beats Liberty
 Worst Case Scenario
   Liberty beats Sparks
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8 9
29 of 29 100% 36 8 94% 6% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 29 97% 35 9 85% 15% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 29 93% 34 10 69% 28% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 29 90% 33 11 51% 41% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
25 of 29 86% 32 12 31% 47% 20% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
24 of 29 83% 31 13 15% 43% 33% 9% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^
23 of 29 79% 30 14 6% 29% 40% 21% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^
22 of 29 76% 29 15 1% 14% 36% 34% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1%
21 of 29 72% 28 16 <1% 5% 22% 39% 26% 8% 1% <1% <1%
20 of 29 69% 27 17 <1% 1% 9% 28% 38% 20% 4% <1% <1%
19 of 29 66% 26 18 <1% <1% 2% 13% 33% 36% 14% 3% <1%
18 of 29 62% 25 19 <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 37% 30% 11% 1%
17 of 29 59% 24 20 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 23% 38% 25% 7%
16 of 29 55% 23 21 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 30% 36% 22%
15 of 29 52% 22 22 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 36% 47%
14 of 29 48% 21 23 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 73%
13 of 29 45% 20 24 X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 90%
10 of 29 34% 17 27 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 29 17% 12 32 X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 29 0% 7 37 X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs