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Thu Oct 8 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Bears What If?

The Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bears play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bears What If?

Next Game - Packers (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 1 0 11% 10% 4% 2% 21% 13% 9% 31%
Current Standings 3 1 0 10% 9% 4% 1% 18% 11% 9% 38%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 5% 7% 3% 1% 17% 13% 10% 42%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 15% 10% 4% 2% 18% 11% 9% 31%
Current Standings 10% 9% 4% 1% 18% 11% 9% 38%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 7% 3% 1% 18% 13% 10% 43%
Best Case Scenario
   Bears beats Packers
   Saints beats Vikings
   Seahawks beats Forty-Niners
 Worst Case Scenario
   Packers beats Bears
   Vikings beats Saints
   Forty-Niners beats Seahawks
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 16 1 0 88% 11% X X 2% ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 15 2 0 65% 22% 1% <1% 12% <1% ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 14 3 0 35% 31% 4% <1% 30% 1% <1% ^
10 of 13 77% 13 4 0 12% 28% 10% 1% 44% 5% <1% <1%
9 of 13 69% 12 5 0 2% 12% 13% 4% 47% 20% 3% <1%
8 of 13 62% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 7% 5% 28% 38% 17% 3%
7 of 13 54% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 1% 3% 7% 28% 35% 26%
6 of 13 46% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 6% 22% 71%
5 of 13 38% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 96%
4 of 13 31% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 13 23% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 13 15% 5 12 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 13 8% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs