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Thu Sep 18 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Saints (0‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 0 0 22% 17% 14% 13% 5% 5% 5% 19%
Current Standings 3 0 0 21% 16% 13% 13% 5% 5% 5% 21%
Lose Next Game 3 1 0 15% 15% 14% 14% 5% 5% 5% 25%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 23% 15% 14% 13% 3% 5% 5% 21%
Current Standings 21% 16% 13% 13% 5% 5% 5% 21%
Worst Case Scenario 20% 16% 13% 12% 6% 6% 5% 22%
Best Case Scenario
   Steelers beats Patriots
   Titans beats Colts
 Worst Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Steelers
   Colts beats Titans
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 17 0 0 97% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 16 1 0 86% 14% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 15 2 0 61% 33% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 14 3 0 32% 46% 17% 2% 2% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 13 4 0 11% 37% 35% 10% 6% 1% <1% <1%
9 of 14 64% 12 5 0 2% 18% 39% 23% 12% 5% 1% <1%
8 of 14 57% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 24% 35% 13% 16% 7% 1%
7 of 14 50% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 9% 35% 6% 19% 19% 11%
6 of 14 43% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 24% 2% 9% 22% 41%
5 of 14 36% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 13% <1% 2% 9% 76%
4 of 14 29% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 6% <1% <1% 1% 93%
3 of 14 21% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
2 of 14 14% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 14 7% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
0 of 14 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs