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Thu Sep 18 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Broncos What If?

The Broncos What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Broncos play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Broncos What If?

Next Game - Chargers (2‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 1 0 5% 7% 7% 7% 9% 8% 7% 49%
Current Standings 1 1 0 4% 6% 6% 5% 9% 8% 7% 56%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 2% 4% 5% 5% 9% 9% 8% 60%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 5% 8% 7% 6% 9% 9% 8% 48%
Current Standings 4% 6% 6% 5% 9% 8% 7% 56%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 4% 5% 5% 9% 8% 8% 60%
Best Case Scenario
   Titans beats Colts
   Broncos beats Chargers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Colts beats Titans
   Chargers beats Broncos
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 16 1 0 84% 15% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 15 2 0 60% 33% 5% <1% 1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 14 3 0 29% 42% 17% 2% 10% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 15 80% 13 4 0 9% 30% 28% 8% 23% 2% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 12 5 0 1% 11% 24% 14% 34% 14% 2% <1%
10 of 15 67% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 12% 18% 25% 29% 12% 2%
9 of 15 60% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 13% 9% 27% 30% 17%
8 of 15 53% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 6% 1% 10% 26% 56%
7 of 15 47% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 2% 8% 88%
6 of 15 40% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
5 of 15 33% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs