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Thu Oct 8 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Buccaneers What If?

The Buccaneers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Buccaneers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Buccaneers What If?

Next Game - Steelers (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 4 0 <1% 1% 4% 9% 1% 2% 3% 79%
Current Standings 1 4 0 <1% 1% 3% 9% 1% 2% 3% 81%
Lose Next Game 1 5 0 <1% <1% 2% 8% <1% 1% 3% 86%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 3% 9% 1% 2% 3% 82%
Current Standings <1% 1% 3% 9% 1% 2% 3% 81%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 3% 8% 1% 2% 3% 82%
Best Case Scenario
   Vikings beats Saints
 Worst Case Scenario
   Saints beats Vikings
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
12 of 12 100% 13 4 0 13% 45% 36% 5% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 12 5 0 2% 22% 51% 19% 4% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 12 83% 11 6 0 <1% 5% 36% 38% 8% 10% 4% 1%
9 of 12 75% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 14% 40% 4% 14% 17% 11%
8 of 12 67% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 3% 27% 1% 5% 17% 48%
7 of 12 58% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 12% <1% <1% 3% 84%
6 of 12 50% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 96%
5 of 12 42% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 12 33% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 12 25% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 12 17% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 12 8% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 12 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs