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Thu Oct 8 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Chargers What If?

The Chargers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chargers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chargers What If?

Next Game - Broncos (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 4 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 94%
Current Standings 0 4 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 96%
Lose Next Game 0 5 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 98%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 94%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 96%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 98%
Best Case Scenario
   Chargers beats Broncos
 Worst Case Scenario
   Broncos beats Chargers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 13 4 0 25% 36% 15% 2% 21% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 13 92% 12 5 0 4% 18% 20% 7% 39% 11% 1% <1%
11 of 13 85% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 11% 10% 31% 33% 11% 1%
10 of 13 77% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 6% 11% 32% 32% 16%
9 of 13 69% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 3% 2% 12% 29% 54%
8 of 13 62% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 9% 89%
7 of 13 54% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
6 of 13 46% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 13 38% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
4 of 13 31% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
3 of 13 23% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 13 15% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 13 8% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs