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Thu Oct 8 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Dolphins What If?

The Dolphins What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Dolphins play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Dolphins What If?

Next Game - Bengals (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 4 0 <1% <1% 3% 7% 1% 3% 5% 82%
Current Standings 0 4 0 <1% <1% 2% 6% 1% 2% 4% 84%
Lose Next Game 0 5 0 <1% <1% 1% 6% <1% 1% 2% 89%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 3% 7% 1% 3% 5% 82%
Current Standings <1% <1% 2% 6% 1% 2% 4% 84%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 6% <1% 1% 2% 89%
Best Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Bengals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bengals beats Dolphins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 13 4 0 13% 40% 38% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 13 92% 12 5 0 2% 18% 46% 24% 7% 2% <1% <1%
11 of 13 85% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 29% 37% 11% 14% 5% 1%
10 of 13 77% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 11% 35% 6% 18% 20% 11%
9 of 13 69% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 23% 1% 9% 21% 43%
8 of 13 62% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 10% <1% 1% 8% 80%
7 of 13 54% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 97%
6 of 13 46% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 13 38% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
4 of 13 31% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
3 of 13 23% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 13 15% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 13 8% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs