The California Golden Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how California plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 12% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 3% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
|
Best Case Scenario California beats Florida St. |
Worst Case Scenario Florida St. beats California |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||
| 8 of 8 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 82% | 17% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 8 | 88% | 7 | 1 | 31% | 40% | 22% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2% | 11% | 27% | 30% | 21% | 8% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 8 | 63% | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 19% | 28% | 26% | 14% | 4% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 2% | 11% | 22% | 28% | 22% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 8 | 38% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 23% | 28% | 21% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 7% | 17% | 27% | 29% | 17% | 3% |
| 1 of 8 | 13% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 13% | 31% | 52% |
| 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 7% | 93% |