The Duke Blue Devils What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Duke plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
Win Next Game | 3 | 1 | 6% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Current Standings | 2 | 1 | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Lose Next Game | 2 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
Best Case Scenario | 6% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Current Standings | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Worst Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
Best Case Scenario Duke beats SMU |
Worst Case Scenario SMU beats Duke |
Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | ||
5 of 5 | 100% | 7 | 1 | 43% | 45% | 11% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
4 of 5 | 80% | 6 | 2 | 2% | 13% | 33% | 35% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
3 of 5 | 60% | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 23% | 32% | 24% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
2 of 5 | 40% | 4 | 4 | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 4% | 13% | 22% | 27% | 21% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 22% | 29% | 23% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
0 of 5 | 0% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | 5% | 20% | 35% | 28% | 11% | 2% |