PlayoffStatus.com

Wed Jan 25 10:45 pm

America East Basketball - Week 12 of 17

UMass-Lowell What If?

The UMass-Lowell River Hawks What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how UMass-Lowell plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

UMass-Lowell What If?

Next Game - New Hampshire (9‑10)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 6 3 42% 28% 17% 9% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5 3 36% 26% 18% 11% 6% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 5 4 23% 25% 21% 16% 10% 4% 1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario 42% 28% 17% 9% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 36% 26% 18% 11% 6% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 23% 25% 21% 16% 10% 4% 1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   UMass-Lowell beats New Hampshire
Worst Case Scenario
   New Hampshire beats UMass-Lowell
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
8 of 8 100% 13 3 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 8 88% 12 4 90% 10% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 8 75% 11 5 50% 44% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 8 63% 10 6 10% 44% 39% 7% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 8 50% 9 7 <1% 7% 36% 42% 13% 1% ^ ^ ^
3 of 8 38% 8 8 X <1% 3% 25% 47% 22% 3% <1% ^
2 of 8 25% 7 9 X X X 1% 18% 50% 27% 4% <1%
1 of 8 13% 6 10 X X X X 1% 19% 47% 28% 5%
0 of 8 0% 5 11 X X X X X 1% 22% 50% 27%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament