The UMass-Lowell River Hawks What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how UMass-Lowell plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 32% | 20% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 26% | 19% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 20% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | |
| Best Case Scenario | 32% | 20% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Current Standings | 26% | 19% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 20% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
|
Best Case Scenario UMass-Lowell beats Albany |
Worst Case Scenario Albany beats UMass-Lowell |
||||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | NT | ||
| 16 of 16 | 100% | 16 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 15 of 16 | 94% | 15 | 1 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 14 of 16 | 88% | 14 | 2 | 97% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 | 3 | 81% | 18% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 | 4 | 49% | 45% | 6% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 16 | 69% | 11 | 5 | 15% | 52% | 30% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 16 | 63% | 10 | 6 | 2% | 23% | 49% | 24% | 3% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 | 7 | <1% | 3% | 25% | 48% | 22% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 | 8 | X | <1% | 3% | 27% | 47% | 20% | 2% | <1% | ^ |
| 7 of 16 | 44% | 7 | 9 | X | X | <1% | 4% | 28% | 46% | 20% | 2% | <1% |
| 6 of 16 | 38% | 6 | 10 | X | X | X | <1% | 4% | 30% | 47% | 17% | 2% |
| 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 | 11 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 36% | 45% | 13% |
| 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 10% | 48% | 42% |
| 3 of 16 | 19% | 3 | 13 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 1% | 24% | 75% |
| 2 of 16 | 13% | 2 | 14 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 94% |
| 1 of 16 | 6% | 1 | 15 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |