PlayoffStatus.com

Wed Jan 25 10:45 pm

America East Basketball - Week 12 of 17

Vermont What If?

The Vermont Catamounts What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Vermont plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Vermont What If?

Next Game - UMBC (14‑8)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
Win Next Game 6 2 41% 28% 17% 8% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 5 2 31% 25% 19% 13% 7% 3% 1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 5 3 18% 24% 23% 18% 10% 5% 2% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
Best Case Scenario 41% 28% 17% 8% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 31% 25% 19% 13% 7% 3% 1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 18% 24% 23% 18% 10% 5% 2% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Vermont beats UMBC
Worst Case Scenario
   UMBC beats Vermont
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8 NT
9 of 9 100% 14 2 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 9 89% 13 3 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 9 78% 12 4 77% 22% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 9 67% 11 5 35% 52% 12% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 9 56% 10 6 6% 37% 44% 12% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 9 44% 9 7 <1% 5% 32% 45% 16% 1% <1% ^ ^
3 of 9 33% 8 8 X <1% 3% 26% 47% 22% 2% <1% ^
2 of 9 22% 7 9 X X X 1% 19% 47% 28% 5% <1%
1 of 9 11% 6 10 X X X X <1% 13% 44% 34% 8%
0 of 9 0% 5 11 X X X X X <1% 9% 45% 46%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home field advantage in the post season conference tournament